10. Tony Finau

As often as Finau gets himself into contention on Tour (four finishes of 8th or better in his last six starts), it feels wrong that the 30-year-old needed a Sunday 65 at Olympia Fields to secure his spot at East Lake, sitting at 29th in the FedExCup standings at the beginning of the week.

It has been the same old story for Finau in 2020: has the talent to contend anywhere, but struggles to close tournaments.

This is his fourth consecutive Tour Championship appearance, with a solo 7th place finish a year ago being his best result. He putted phenomenally at last week’s BMW Championship, pressuring the leaders with five back-nine birdies and finishing solo-fifth.

Finau cannot expect to contend often in tournaments where he has two rounds of hitting just 3 of 14 fairways though.

World Rank: 14th
FedExCup Rank: 20th
Starting Strokes: -2
Odds (W, 5, 10): 55-1, 9-1, 5-1
Last Six: 5, MC, 4, 65, 3, 8

9. Tyrrell Hatton

Pro Golf Weekly has consistently been very high on Hatton, almost to the point where it looks like a bias, and we maintain that he will be a factor in upcoming majors.

The world No. 15 is as streaky as they come, which bodes well for his chances at East Lake, as he snapped out of a two-week week funk (T69 and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and a missed cut at the PGA Championship) with consecutive top 25s, looking pristine in a third round 63 at The Northern Trust.

Hatton is second on Tour in birdie average and tenth in scoring average, and we could see just about any result here. His chances of contending in his first start at East Lake will likely come down to his work on the greens, where he has shown world-class ability, but has been shockingly poor as of late.

World Rank: 15th
FedExCup Rank: 19th
Starting Strokes: -2
Odds (W, 5, 10): 110-1, 20-1, 9-1
Last Six: 16, 25, MC, 69, 4, 3

8. Collin Morikawa

I can guarantee that the field took notice of Morikawa’s 68-68 weekend at Olympia Fields, as the PGA Champion had experienced something of a tournament-and-a-half hangover and capturing the major championship at TPC Harding Park.

The 23-year-old has been absolutely pure with his irons this season, a big part of the reason he has two wins and a playoff runner-up since the Tour restart. Do not be concerned that this is his Tour Championship debut. That has not seemed to matter much anywhere else.

World Rank: 5th
FedExCup Rank: 5th
Starting Strokes: -5
Odds (W, 5, 10): 25-1, 6-1, 3-1
Last Six: 20, MC, 1, 20, 48, 1

7. Rory McIlroy

The defending FedExCup Champion has mostly MIA on leaderboards since Tour Play resumed. In six starts before the layoff, he had failed to finish worse than fifth, but in eight starts since, has not recorded a top 10.

McIlroy did get himself into the 36-hole co-lead at Olympia Fields last week, but a third-round 73 dropped him from contention, and he finished T12. Course history is LARGELY in the world No. 4’s favor, however, as he won both the 2016 and 2019 editions, and finished runner-up to a scorching hot Billy Horschel in 2014.

Nobody would be surprised if this is the week it all clicks for Rory again, but it is fair to wonder how distracted he is with the birth of his child being imminent.

World Rank: 4th
FedExCup Rank: 12th
Starting Strokes: -3
Odds (W, 5, 10): 25-1, 6-1, 3-1
Last Six: 12, 65, 33, 47, 32, 11

6. Daniel Berger

The Florida State guy to make the Tour Championship this year was surprisingly not Brooks Koepka, but Berger, who is having a tremendous bounce-back season after missing this event the past two seasons.

Berger had been red hot going into the BMW, with eight results of T13 or better in his last nine starts, but was among those cooled by Olympia Fields, as a 73-74 start engendered a pedestrian T25 result.

We are willing to give him a pass given the difficulty of the course, and his No. 4 scoring average. At the very least, we expect him to outperform his previous best East Lake finish of T12, five seasons ago.

World Rank: 13th
FedExCup Rank: 6th
Starting Strokes: -4
Odds (W, 5, 10): 30-1, 6-1, 3-1
Last Six: 25, 3, 13, 2, MC, 3

5. Webb Simpson

The two-time 2020 season champion, who surprisingly leads the PGA Tour in both scoring average and birdie average, has played well enough this year that he was able to take the BMW Championship off last week, and still sits at fourth in the FedExCup standings.

Webb had gone T3-T6 the previous two weeks, but felt that rest would be more conducive to success at East Lake than keeping momentum. He has been hit-or-miss at this event, with three top fives, but also a handful of finishes outside the top 20.

As consistent as he has been this season, we would be surprised if his result is not closer to the former.

World Rank: 6th
FedExCup Rank: 4th
Starting Strokes: -6
Odds (W, 5, 10): 10-1, 3-1, 1-1
Last Six: 6, 3, 37, 12, MC, 8

4. Justin Thomas

Both No. 3 in the FedExCup Standings and the World Rankings, Thomas’ three victories leads the Tour, with the most recent coming at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Classic in early August.

Thomas has nine top 10s and more than $7 million in earnings this year, but has stagnated since his WGC triumph, with a T37 at the PGA Championship, a T49 at The Northern Trust, and a T25 at least week’s BMW Championship.

Thomas leads the Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green and strokes gained: tee-to-green, and has finished in the top 7 of this event each of the past four seasons, including a runner-up to Xander Schauffele in 2017 that won him the FedExCup.

With a win, he would join Tiger and Rory as the only players with two FedExCup trophies, and would cement his status as Tour Player of the Year.

World Rank: 3rd
FedExCup Rank: 3rd
Starting Strokes: -7
Odds (W, 5, 10): 5-1, 1-1, 1-2
Last Six: 25, 49, 37, 1, 18, 2

3. Dustin Johnson

It is an enormous compliment to the World No. 1 to note that he has been his best version as of late. The 22-time Tour winner followed an 11-stroke blowout two weeks ago at The Northern Trust with a runner-up at last week’s BMW Championship.

DJ showed tremendous composure when he forced a playoff at Olympia Fields by sinking a difficult 43-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole. If it wasn’t for Jon Rahm’s 66-foot birdie on the first playoff hole, Johnson could easily be playing this week off of consecutive victories.

His hot recent play has him atop the FedExCup standings, which allows him to start the finale at 10-under-par, and with three consecutive finishes of runner-up or better, he is difficult to bet against this week, even with inconsistent Tour history, which includes a shocking 29th place finish a year ago. DJ’s best result at East Lake was a solo-third in 2018.

World Rank: 1st
FedExCup Rank: 1st
Starting Strokes: -10
Odds (W, 5, 10): 2-1, 1-3, 1-5
Last Six: 2, 1, 2, 12, MC, 1

2. Xander Schauffele

The frequent majors contender has been admirably consistent as of late, with seven consecutive top-25 finishes, and eight in nine starts since Tour play resumed.

The REAL reason to love Schauffele this week is that despite being a west coaster, he plays East Lake like it’s his home. He won the Tour Championship as a rookie in 2017, finished T7 in 2018, and was runner-up to Rory McIlroy in the most recent edition.

Schauffele will need to again be amazing, as he starts the week seven strokes behind Dustin Johnson, which feels like a 20-shot lead right now given DJ’s recent form.

World Rank: 11th
FedExCup Rank: 14th
Starting Strokes: -3
Odds (W, 5, 10): 25-1, 5-1, 2-1
Last Six: 25, 25, 10, 6, 13, 14

1. Jon Rahm

It cannot be overstated how impressive Rahm was last weekend at Olympia Fields, moving from 6-over to 4-under and defeating a blazing-hot Dustin Johnson after nailing a winding 66-foot putt on the first playoff hole.

The BMW victory moved the 25-year-old Spainard into the No. 2 position for the Tour Championship, which matches his No. 2 world ranking (in both cases, Johnson is No. 1). When Rahm gets hot, he stays hot, and now with two wins in his last five starts, in addition to T13 and a T6, we love his chances to nab season victory No. 3 at East Lake.

This will be the fourth Tour Championship start for Rahm, who has not shot a round here that was not a 68 or a 72 since finishing T7 as a rookie in 2017. He leads the Tour in strokes gained: total and is No. 2 in scoring average.

Also, apparently he can hit clutch putts. Rahm just needs to avoid hurting his margin of error with penalty strokes, as he has been penalized rules violations in both his 2020 season victories, which he admirably took responsibility for on both occasions.

World Rank: 2nd
FedExCup Rank: 2nd
Starting Strokes: -8
Odds (W, 5, 10): 3-1, 1-1, 1-3
Last Six: 1, 6, 13, 52, 1, 27