5. Tony Finau
Getting named last week as Jim Furyk’s final Captain’s Pick for the American Ryder Cup team should provide a boost of confidence for Finau, who is tied for the Tour lead in top-10s this year (11), including one in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs.
As undeniably talented as Finau is, he is still looking for the first significant win of his PGA Tour career, and if he finally breaks through this week, the current No. 3 in the FedExCup Standings would also be $10 million richer. Hard to do much better for a win than that, and everything seems to be lining up for it to happen.
In his 12 playoff rounds, he has yet to post a round that was not under par, and in all three events, he has finished double-digits under par.
Odds: 18-1
World Rank: 16
FedExCup Rank: 3
Last Six: 8, 4, 2, 42, 10, 37
4. Justin Rose
At East Lake this week, Rose will be making his debut as the World’s No. 1 ranked golfer, a position he earned after his solo-second finish at the BMW Championship. It was his second consecutive solo-runner up and he now holds the No. 2 position in the FedExCup Standings.
Rose has been easily the most consistently-good golfer in the world over the past 12 months, and it would be a huge surprise if he is not among the leader mix at the Tour Championship. Rose had just three bogeys for the entire week at Aronimink (although that 5-footer in the playoff was a killer), and that kind of bogey avoidance is an enormous advantage at a course like East Lake, which should not be the shootout we have seen in the other playoff events. Rose has twice finished runner-up in this event.
Odds: 9-1
World Rank: 1
FedExCup Rank: 2
Last Six: 2, 2, MC, 19, 2, 9
3. Tiger Woods
A win at the Tour Championship
A finish of T15 or worse for Bryson DeChambeau
A three-way tie for T5 or worse for Justin Rose
A finish of T3 or worse for Tony Finau
A three-way tie for T2 for Justin Thomas
A three-way tie for T2 for Dustin Johnson
A finish of T2 or worse for Keegan Bradley
That is what needs to happen for Tiger, currently 20th in the FedExCup Standings, to win his third career FedExCup Championship. The odds may be against him, but it should be comforting to his fans to point out that in Bill Haas won the 2011 FedExCup from even further back (25th).
Tiger’s 2018 comeback season and has everything… except for a win. He was T6 at the BMW Championship and has won at East Lake before, blitzing the field by an 8-shot margin in 2007. There would be no better way for him to end his unlikely tremendous season.
Odds: 12-1
World Rank: 21
FedExCup Rank: 20
Last Six: 6, 24, 40, 2, 31, 6
2. Justin Thomas
A T8-T24-T12 playoff run is far from terrible, and he has played well enough to snag the No. 5 spot at East Lake, but he has not really looked himself over the last month, which Thomas himself has admitted.
With three victories on the 2018 season, and one of the PGA’s best tee-to-green games, JT is a threat to turn on it at any time, and he was runner-up at this event just last year.
The reigning FedExCup Champion should be extra motivated to finish atop this year’s field, which would add a nice $10 million check to his $8.4 million in season earnings, and make him just the second player in Tour history to win two FedExCup Championships (Tiger Woods), and the first to take them back-to-back.
Odds: 11-1
World Rank: 4
FedExCup Rank: 5
Last Six: 12, 24, 8, 6, 1, MC
1. Brooks Koepka
Sitting at 7th in the FedExCup Standings, it is surprising that a man who won two majors this year did not land one of the coveted top-5 spots, but Koepka just lost too much ground when he missed several months of point-accumulating opportunities. He is coming into East Lake in good form, shooting just one round outside of the 60s in 12 playoff rounds, and he finished sixth in this event one year ago.
Another thing to consider with Koepka is the PGA Tour Player of the Year Award, which seems likely to be his (although Bryson DeChambeau or Justin Thomas could potentially make things interesting), but a win at East Lake would undoubtedly clinch it.
Koepka’s putter was not clicking at Aronimink, but that should not be a big concern if he finds himself in the mix late at East Lake. He makes the putts when they matter.
Odds: 12-1
World Rank: 2
FedExCup Rank: 6
Last Six: 19, 12, 8, 1, 5, MC