A week removed from their annual dabble with team golf, the PGA Tour moves further south this week, from New Orleans to Vidanta Vallarta in Mexico, for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
A new event as far as the PGA Tour is concerned, a relatively weak field feels like another week in the post-Masters lull, but an unfamiliar course brings about a fun equalizer as players get themselves in position for a run in the future amp-up.
As expected, the Mexico natives will get the most fanfare this week. Could any of them break through for a victory this week? Here are the 15 players we think are most likely to finish the week in the winner’s circle:
15. Anirban Lahiri
The native of India has taken a huge leap forward in the world rankings in his past three starts, with a solo runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T13 at the Valero Texas Open have jumped him from 322nd to 85th. Lahiri’s putter has been hit-or-miss, but he has been making things easier for himself on the greens lately, ranking 22nd or better in the field in greens in regulation his last three times out.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: 22nd
World Rank: 85th
Field Rank: 9th
Last Six: 66, 13, 2, 74, MC, MC
14. Sahith Theegala
The physically-imposing 24-year-old has kept himself especially relevant in his first full-time season on Tour, with 14 made cuts in 19 events and three top-10s. Theegala contended to the end at February’s WM Phoenix Open, finishing T3, and was T7 last month at the Valspar Championship. Still trying to put four rounds together, Theegala is on an excellent trajectory to break through in the near future.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: 22nd
World Rank: 125th
Field Rank: 19th
Last Six: 70, 66, 22, 7, MC, MC
13. Kevin Streelman
Just one top-10 in 16 starts this season is not good for the 42-year-old, but before missing the cut at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, he had been trending positively, with four results of T22 or better in a five-start stretch, including a T7 at the Valspar Championship, where he shot four rounds in the 60s. Looking for his first win since June of 2014, Streelman ranks inside the top 60 in four of the six strokes gained categories.
Odds: 40-1
Odds Rank: 12th
World Rank: 98th
Field Rank: 14th
Last Six: MC, 18, 7, 22, MC, 16
12. Brendon Todd
He won’t overpower any course, but Todd clearly feels comfortable playing in Mexico, having finished WIN, T8, T11 in his last three trips to the Mayakoba event. Someone who really feeds off momentum, the University of Georgia product has been trending positive as of late, with three consecutive starts of T26 or better, including a T8 at the Valero Texas Open earlier this month. Todd is currently fifth on Tour in strokes gained: putting, which is not a bad thing anywhere.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: 14th
World Rank: 156th
Field Rank: 27th
Last Six: 26, 8, MC, MC, 60, 48
11. Sebastian Munoz
The Colombian has been pretty steady as of late, with six straight made cuts, and while none have resulted in better than a T21, he has at least put himself in a position for a much better finish through 54 holes in his last two stroke-play events. His Sunday scores have been ghastly lately, and his putting has been even worse. Still, he typically peppers in some excellent results here and there, and has been solidly average or better in most of his game, and he is well-rested, having not played in over a month.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 73rd
Field Rank: 8th
Last Six: 26, 33, 26, 21, 23, 39
10. Carlos Ortiz
The 31-year-old Mexico native comes into the week off four consecutive missed cuts, but likely has this week circled on his calendar. Ortiz seems to relish the opportunities to play in front of his home crowds, having finished T2-T8-2 in his last three starts in the Mayakoba event, and was T16 two years ago in his lone start at the WGC-Mexico Championship. He will need to be comfortable with the greens at Vidanta, as his short game has been ghastly as of late.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: 14th
World Rank: 90th
Field Rank: 10th
Last Six: MC, MC, MC, MC, 39, 33
9. Aaron Wise
The former University of Oregon star has not been phenomenal as of late, but a hot stretch in the fall included a T15 at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, the most recent Tour event held in Mexico, where he opened with an 8-under 63. It was his second consecutive great showing there, as he was also solo-second the year prior, where he closed with an 8-under 63. Putting is still his Achilles heel, but Wise has shown improvements on the green this season, and was 21st in the field in strokes gained: putting in his last start two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 93rd
Field Rank: 12th
Last Six: 21, MC, 50, 17, MC, 67
8. Cameron Tringale
Given all the good first-time winners this season, Tringale makes sense as he aims for win No. 1 in his 327th career start. The 34-year-old has emerged from a slump with a T10-T12 stretch in his last two starts, and has already tied his career high in top-10s (4). Tringale ranks 19th on Tour in greens in regulation, and has been more than competent in every phase of his game. He had just five bogeys in his last stroke-play start, two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 49th
Field Rank: 6th
Last Six: 12, 35, 62, MC, MC, 13
7. Gary Woodland
It still feels odd to see the former U.S. Open winner barely inside the top 100 in the OWGR, but his game seems to be coming back around, with four finishes of T21 or better in his last six starts, including a pair of T5s. Woodland’s ball-striking and putting have been much improved since February, and that improvement has reflected in his results, as he has netted more top-10s in 13 games this season than he did in 25 starts a season ago. Different course, but he has at least shown some comfort in Mexico before, finishing runner-up at the 2016 OHL Classic at Mayakoba and a T12 at the 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: 4th
World Rank: 96th
Field Rank: 13th
Last Six: MC, 8, 21, MC, 5, 5
6. Tony Finau
This has been a shockingly poor season for Finau. Normally a top-10 machine, he averaged eight such finishes a year over his previous five seasons. This year? Zero top-10s in 12 starts, and his only top-25 was a T19 in a 32-man, no cut event. Still, Finau is too well-rounded to continue this slump much longer, and his last two starts were at least decent: a T29 at the Valero Texas Open and a T35 at The Masters. With some positive momentum and a weak field, this feels like as good a time as any for Tony to make his presence felt again.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: 4th
World Rank: 25th
Field Rank: 3rd
Last Six: 35, 29, 35, MC, 33, MC
5. Matt Jones
The 42-year-old Aussie has not been particularly consistent in his last two Tour seasons, but he has flashed brilliance at times, and he could be feeling closer to his best again after his most recent start: a T2 at the Valero Texas Open in spite of a second-round 75. He birdied 12 of his final 23 holes in that event. This season, he ranks positively in everything except for putting, which is usually a strength of his.
Odds: 40-1
Odds Rank: 12th
World Rank: 67th
Field Rank: 7th
Last Six: 2, MC, 52, MC, 15, 58
4. Abraham Ancer
The Mexican citizen will certainly have a large following at Vidanta this week. Not only is he the highest-ranked Mexican in the field, but at No. 20, he is the second highest-ranked total. A T5 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play last month helps, but frankly, he has been awful in stroke play events since his T7 at the last Mexico-held event back in November, and even in that one, he finished eight strokes behind champion Viktor Hovland. Strangely, the 31-year-old has been far less consistent since he finally broke through with a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational last August. He is driving well, but not doing a whole lot else.
Odds: 18-1
Odds Rank: 3rd
World Rank: 20th
Field Rank: 2nd
Last Six: MC, 5, MC, 33, 39, 43
3. Kevin Na
The five-time Tour winner got his 2022 season off to a rough start, but has bounced back somewhat with a T9-T14-T26 stretch over his last three starts. He was eighth in the field in birdies two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage and showed considerable improvement tee-to-green. He was red hot from July through September, with two runner-ups and a solo-third among a six start stretch where he finished no worse than T23. Perhaps the weaker field can get him really going again.
Odds: 28-1
Odds Rank: 6th
World Rank: 32nd
Field Rank: 4th
Last Six: 26, 14, 9, MC, MC, 28
2. Daniel Berger
One of the highest-ranked players in the field, the world No. 23 has not quite flashed the consistency he did a season ago but has still made seven of eight cuts with a pair of top-10 finishes. Berger also ranks inside the top 10 on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green, strokes gained: tee-to-green, and strokes gained: total, all of which are indicators that he is due for another week in contention. His Sundays as a whole have been a nightmare, however.
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 23rd
Field Rank: 3rd
Last Six: 21, 50, 35, 13, 4, MC
1. Jon Rahm
The highest-ranked player in the field, the world No. 2 really stands out in this field, given that the next highest-ranked player in No. 20 Abraham Ancer. Rahm is an obvious favorite, and any result outside the top five would be an enormous disappointment. Looking for his first top-10 in a stroke-play Tour event since a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open in early February, Rahm’s short game has let him down tremendously on the current season, but in regard to ball striking he is still Jon Rahm: he currently leads the Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and greens in regulation, while ranking second in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
Odds: 5-1
Odds Rank: 1st
World Rank: 2nd
Field Rank: 1st
Last Six: 27, 9, 55, 17, 21, 10
Next Five: Cameron Champ, Doug Ghim, Patrick Reed, Chris Kirk, Brian Stuard
