And it all comes down to this: the 40-week grind of the 2022 PGA Tour season closes this week as it has every year since 2007, with the 30 remaining survivors of the ultra-lucrative FedExCup facing off at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the TOUR Championship.
Continuing with the format adopted in 2019, the current FedExCup points leader, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, will start the week at 10-under, two strokes clear of the current No. 2, Patrick Cantlay.
Awaiting the winner is the prodigious FedExCup money prize: $18 million, the largest reward in golf (for now). Even the player who finishes dead last will leave with a cool $500,000 and exemptions into basically every elite event next year. It’s the best of the best in this week’s showdown, and the following are the golfers we feel are mostly likely to end the week with the coveted FedEx Cup.
15. Viktor Hovland
Finally some signs of life from the ultra-talented Norwegian! Hovland had been in a funk since March, but a co-field-low 6-under 65 on Sunday at last week’s BMW Championship has the 24-year-old feeling good about his game heading into the Tour Championship… Hovland made it to the Tour finale all three years he has been on Tour, and finished fifth a year ago after another Sunday 65… All eight of his rounds at East Lake have been 70 or better… He’s far back, but he can make up ground in a hurry.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: T14
World Rank: 11th
FedExCup Rank: 20th
Starting Position: T16 (-2)
Best at East Lake: T4 (2021)
Last Six: 35, 20, 4, MC, MC, 51
14. Scott Stallings
Stallings might not be the most exciting or well-known player in Atlanta, but he made getting to East Lake one of his primary goals this season, and he made it happen with a late season surge, and then vaulted from 42nd to 12th after finishing solo-second at last week’s BMW Championship… It is the first time the 37-year-old has reached the Tour Championship, and he comes in with considerable momentum. A missed cut at the FedEx St. Jude Championship is his only finish of worse than T13 in his last six starts… Impressively, Stallings led the field last week in strokes gained: approach-the-green.
Odds: 100-1
Odds Rank: T19
World Rank: 61st
FedExCup Rank: 12th
Starting Position: T11 (-3)
Best at East Lake: Debut
Last Six: 2, MC, 13, 10, 4, 8
13. Collin Morikawa
The two-time major champion has been shocking inconsistent since May and was unable to add a sixth Tour victory this season… Even more shocking was his third-round 77 at the U.S. Open after holding the 36-hole lead, and the final round 79 he had at last week’s BMW Championship, which caused him to plummet 38 spots down the final leaderboard when he had been on the fringe of contention… Morikawa was 1-over through 10 on Sunday, but then followed up a double-bogey 6 on the par 4 11th with a 10(!) on the par-5 12th… Still, he’s a big-game hunter and when his putter is even decent, there may not be a better player in the world. He can make up ground in a hurry.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: T19
World Rank: 8th
FedExCup Rank: 21st
Starting Position: T21 (-1)
Best at East Lake: T7 (2020)
Last Six: 44, 5, MC, MC, 5, MC
12. Sam Burns
A three-win season for the 26-year-old LSU product, Burns was rewarded for his great season play with the five spot for the Tour Championship… He is one of the game’s most well-rounded players, and shot a lower score than the previous day in last year’s edition, but has not yet seriously contended in an event this big, and he is not in great form at the moment, with a T19 at last week’s 70-man BMW Championship his best result in his last six starts… Burns currently ranks 11th on Tour in strokes gained: putting.
Odds: 22-1
Odds Rank: T8
World Rank: 12th
FedExCup Rank: 5th
Starting Position: 5th (-5)
Best at East Lake: T17 (2021)
Last Six: 19, 20, 42, 66, MC, 27
11. Sungjae Im
A fourth consecutive top-15 finish (T15 on the number) at last week’s BMW Championship put the 24-year-old in the 10 spot coming into East Lake… It has been another remarkable campaign for Im, highlighted by a win at the Shriners in October and back-to-back runner-ups (3M and Wyndham) to close the regular season… Ranking in the top 11 on Tour in four of the six strokes gained categories, Im is already competing in his fourth Tour Championship… His persistence and familiarity with the course means he should not be forgotten this week, despite starting six strokes off the pace.
Odds: 28-1
Odds Rank: 11th
World Rank: 19th
FedExCup Rank: 5th
Starting Position: T6 (-4)
Best at East Lake: 12th (2020)
Last Six: 15, 12, 2, 2, 81, MC
10. Justin Thomas
A win at May’s PGA Championship, aside, the 15-time Tour winner has been largely inconsistent in 2022, and has been struggling especially as of late, with just one top-35 in his last four starts, a backdoor T13 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship… Still, Thomas has shown he can explode into contention at any moment, and has been great statistically this season, ranking in the top 16 in five of the six strokes gained categories, including third in strokes gained: tee-to-green… While he has yet to win at East Lake, he has been remarkably consistent, finishing T7 or better in all six attempts, including runner-ups in 2017 and 2020… He was T53 at last week’s BMW Championship after closing his round with a 3-over 74.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 10th
World Rank: 7th
FedExCup Rank: 13th
Starting Position: T11 (-3)
Best at East Lake: 2nd (2017)
Last Six: 52, 13, 53, MC, 37, 3
9. Jordan Spieth
While the 13-time Tour winner has not been in contention as often as he would like in 2022, it has been another solid season for Spieth, who won the RBC Heritage in April and added runner-ups at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and AT&T Byron Nelson… Unfortunately, AT&T is not the Tour Championship sponsor, and his game has not been consistent lately… He entered the playoffs off consecutive top–10s, but missed the cut at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and shot a Saturday 74 at the BMW Championship after getting to a stroke off the 36-hole lead… Spieth has had success at East Lake, though, winning the 2015 Tour Championship and FedEx Cup. He was runner-up in his 2013 debut.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: T14
World Rank: 13th
FedExCup Rank: 18th
Starting Position: T16 (-2)
Best at East Lake: 1st (2015)
Last Six: 19, MC, 8, 10, MC, 37
8. Tony Finau
After exploding from an underwhelming season with back-to-back victories at the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July, and then finishing T5 in the first round of the FedExCup Playoffs, Finau opened the BMW Championship last week with a stunning 77 that tanked his chances to contend for a fourth straight start. He did rebound well, though, shooting rounds of 68, 67, and 68 to reach 4-under for the week, finishing a respectable T28 in the 70-man field… Aside from that one round, Finau has been absolutely fantastic over his past six starts, and should not be forgotten this week, despite beginning the Tour Championship six strokes off the lead… In five career starts at East Lake, his best finish is T7 (twice).
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: T6
World Rank: 14th
FedExCup Rank: 8th
Starting Position: T6 (-4)
Best at East Lake: T7 (2019, 2017)
Last Six: 28, 5, 1, 1, 28, 13
7. Jon Rahm
Given the high level of play he has sustained over his six-year career, it is surprising to see Rahm starting the Tour Championship seven strokes back… He can make up ground in a hurry, though: last year he started four strokes off the lead but rode a pair of 65s to a share the lowest gross score, while finishing just one stroke behind Cantlay for the FedEx Cup… While considered a down season by Rahm’s high standards, the Spaniard did notch a victory along with seven additional top 10s… He leads the Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee.
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: T6
World Rank: 6th
FedExCup Rank: 11th
Starting Position: T11 (-3)
Best at East Lake: T1 (2021)
Last Six: 8, 5, 34, 55, 12, 10
6. Cameron Smith
Sitting out last week’s BMW Championship hurt his starting position at East Lake, but the recent Open Championship winner should still be considered among the best bets to take the Tour Championship… The Tour leader in birdie average, the world No. 2 finds ways to score where his peers don’t, and his phenomenal putting could be an equalizer on a course where it is especially necessary… Smith is not super consistent from round to round however, and in each of his three Tour Championship starts, he has been derailed at some point by a 73… A three-time winner on Tour this season, a win would match Scottie Scheffler for the Tour low, and put himself into the conversation for PGA Tour Player of the Year… He might also be extra motivated to win this week, as there are whispers that he might be the next big name to jump to a certain tour.
Odds: 22-1
Odds Rank: T8
World Rank: 2nd
FedExCup Rank: 6th
Starting Position: T6 (-4)
Best at East Lake: T17 (2021)
Last Six: 13, 1, 10, MC, 48, 13
5. Rory McIlroy
Rory knows what it takes to triumph at East Lake, winning the 2016 edition under the old format, and then again in 2019 in the first year of the current format, which he followed up with a runner-up result in 2020… The world No. 4 starts this week six strokes back of Scottie Scheffler’s lead, but among those who would be considered further back, there is arguably nobody more well equipped to chase the leader… His two FedExCup titles ties him with Tiger Woods for the most all-time (the FedExCup started in 2007), and a third would add another seven-digit payday to his already bloated bank account… McIlroy was very steady at the BMW last week, finishing T8 after shooting all four rounds in the 68-70 range.
Odds: 12-1
Odds Rank: T4
World Rank: 4th
FedExCup Rank: 7th
Starting Position: T6 (-4)
Best at East Lake: 1st (2019, 2016)
Last Six: 8, MC, 3, 19, 5, 1
4. Will Zalatoris
The FedEx Cup playoffs began with what we all knew was imminent: Zalatoris’ first Tour victory, when he outdueled Sepp Straka in a playoff at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Unfortunately, fans did not get to see what the 25-year-old could do through four rounds at the BMW, withdrawing in the third round after tweaking his back. The WD sounded largely precautionary, but much is still unknown about his condition… He has thrived in big events, as evidenced by the six top-10s he has in just ten majors starts… This will be his East Lake debut, however, if that even matters with him. He did not get a chance a year ago, as he wasn’t a full Tour member.
Odds: 12-1
Odds Rank: T4
World Rank: 9th
FedExCup Rank: 3rd
Starting Position: 3rd (-7)
Best at East Lake: Debut
Last Six: WD, 1, 21, 20, 28, MC
3. Patrick Cantlay
The reigning FedExCup champion arrived at East Lake atop the standings a year ago, which helped him stave off Jon Rahm to win the title. This year? Cantlay starts in the No. 2 position after a thrilling win at the BMW just last week. The 30-year-old UCLA product led the Tour in top-10s this season with 11, and he has been amazingly consistent in the second half of the Tour season, with nine finishes of T14 or better in his last 11 starts. East Lake has actually not been a great course for Cantlay, but he did shoot four rounds in the 60s last year, which was his fourth Tour Championship start.
Odds: 4-1
Odds Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 3rd
FedExCup Rank: 2nd
Starting Position: 2nd (-8)
Best at East Lake: 1st (2021)
Last Six: 1, 57, 2, 8, 4, 13
2. Xander Schauffele
Xander knows what he’s doing at East Lake. The world No. 5, won the Tour Championship in his event debut in 2017 under the previous format, and in 2020, he had the lowest gross score, finishing second to Dustin Johnson in the current format… Schauffele looks as dangerous as anyone in the game right now, winning three times since April, and his T3 at the BMW last week was his ninth top-20 finish in his last ten starts… An even-par final round when in contention last week was a bit underwhelming, but he’s clicking in every facet of the game right now, and his confidence should be sky high on a course that apparently really suits him.
Odds: 7-1
Odds Rank: 3rd
World Rank: 5th
FedExCup Rank: 4th
Starting Position: 4th (-6)
Best at East Lake: 1st (2017)
Last Six: 3, 57, 15, 1, 1, 14
1. Scottie Scheffler
The system works! The man who was the most dominant player on Tour this season, winning four times, including a breakthrough major at The Masters, and finishing runner-up three additional times, begins the Tour Championship atop the FedEx rankings, and gets a huge advantage in starting at 10-under… Scheffler hasn’t won in four months, and was actually slumping for three starts before the BMW, but it appears he is back in form after finishing T3 in Wilmington… His 21 birdies led the field last week, although it was not his best performance on the greens.
Odds: 3-1
Odds Rank: 1st
World Rank: 1st
FedExCup Rank: 1st
Starting Position: 1st (-10)
Best at East Lake: 2nd (2020)
Last Six: 3, MC, 21, MC, 13, 2
Next Five: Cameron Young (-3), Matt Fitzpatrick (-3), Hideki Matsuyama (-2), Corey Conners (-2), Adam Scott (E)
