The gorgeous scenery of Pebble Beach, where last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was played, gives way to this week’s raucous, frat party-like feel of the WM Phoenix Open.
Contested at TPC Scottsdale in the Phoenix, Arizona area, the tournament dates all the way back to 1932 and is known for being the most attended tournament on the PGA Tour’s schedule. A fun, Super Bowl lead-in, the par-3 16th hole – The Stadium Hole – is known as the loudest in all of golf. It is an inimitable sight, particularly on Sundays.
As for the players set to be the subject of the immense noise in Scottsdale, the field is strong, boasting 18 of the top 20-ranked players in the Official World PGA Tour Golf Rankings. How many of those superstars do we see getting into contention? Here are the top 10 we like this week:
10. Tony Finau
The 33-year-old Finau enters in top form with a win and two top-10s among his five finishes on the 2023 campaign… Going back to last season, the Utah native owns eight top-10 finishes in his last eleven starts, highlighted by three victories… Currently ranked 2nd on the tour in scoring and 3rd in birdies… Downside? Not a great record at Scottsdale: five (5!) missed cuts in seven starts, though does own a silver medal in 2020.
Odds: 20-1
Book Rank: T6
World Rank: 13th
World/Field Rank: 11th
Last 7: 9, 16, 7, 7, 1, MC, 9
Phoenix History: MC, 2, MC, MC, MC, MC, 22
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 70.00
Low Round: 62 (R3 2020)
Best at Scottsdale: 2nd (2020)
9. Max Homa
The southern California native entered the 2021 calendar year as a 30-year-old journeyman with a single PGA Tour win and a world ranking of 103. Two years later, Homa enters the 2023 Phoenix Open as a six-time tour winner and a top-tier star with a world ranking of No. 12… The 32-year-old UC-Berkeley product comes in off a T3 at Kapalua and win in San Diego – his second tour title of the early season… He sits inside the top 10 on the tour in total strokes gained (5th) and total driving (8th).
Odds: 22-1
Book Rank: T8
World Rank: 12th
World/Field Rank: 10th
Last 7: 1, 3, 17, 23, 20, 1, 3
Phoenix History: 14, 42, 6, 26
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 68.56
Low Round: 64 (R3 2020)
Best at Scottsdale: 6th (2020)
8. Patrick Cantlay
Sporting one of the best all-around games on the tour, Cantlay finished runner up in his 2022 debut at Phoenix, losing to Scottie Scheffler in a playoff… The 2021 PGA Tour Player of the Year and FedExCup Champion has made just three starts on the new season with a T2 in Las Vegas his best finish… The California native is ranked 1st on tour in birdie average (6.17) and 3rd in total driving.
Odds: 22-1
Book Rank: T8
World Rank: 5th
World/Field Rank: 4th
Last 7: 26, 16, 2, 16, 1, 57, 2
Phoenix History: 2
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 67.00
Low Round: 66 (R2 2022)
Best at Scottsdale: 2nd (2022)
7. Collin Morikawa
The two-time major winner endured something of a slump in 2022 but seems to have righted the ship and enters off three straight top-6 finishes (sixth in the Bahamas, runner-up at Kapalua and solo third at Torrey Pines)… Currently ranked No. 7 in the world, the California native sits 1st on tour in fairways hit (75.71%) and 3rd in greens hit (78.06%)… Finished T25 in his only start in Phoenix (2020).
Odds: 16-1
Book Rank: T4
World Rank: 7th
World/Field Rank: 6th
Last 7: 3, 2, 6, 15, 29, 45, 19
Phoenix History: 25
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 68.75
Low Round: 67 (R2 2020)
Best at Scottsdale: 25th (2020)
6. Justin Thomas
The 15-time Tour winner enters Phoenix in questionable form (T40, T25, T25) – sort of a carryover from his mediocre play following his second major victory at the 2022 PGA… Thomas, who’s generally a top-10 machine, is in search of his first official top-10 finish of the new season… Only twice in eight TPC Scottsdale starts has Thomas finished worse than 17th… Shot 66 on Sunday to post a backdoor T8 last year.
Odds: 20-1
Book Rank: 6th
World Rank: 9th
World/Field Rank: 7th
Last 7: 25, 25, 5, 40, 4, 52, 13
Phoenix History: 8, 13, 3, 3, 17, MC, MC, 17
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 68.46
Low Round: 64 (R3 2021, R1 2019)
Best at Scottsdale: 3rd (2020, 2019)
5. Scottie Scheffler
TPC Scottsdale seems to have more “horse for the course” type players than most courses, and Scottie Scheffler certainly fits that bill now with a T7 and win in his last two starts… The now world No. 2 enters in strong form, and under the radar again, having posted five consecutive top-11 finishes, highlighted by a T3 at Mayakoba… Sits inside the top 10 on tour in greens hit (7th), total driving (4th), and strokes gained: tee to green (10th).
Odds: 12-1
Book Rank: 3rd
World Rank: 2nd
World/Field Rank: 2nd
Last 7: 11, 7, 2, 9, 3, 45, 13
Phoenix History: 1, 7, MC
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 67.60
Low Round: 62 (R3 2022)
Best at Scottsdale: 1st (2022)
4. Hideki Matsuyama
With two wins, a runner-up, and a T4 in his WM Phoenix Open career, Matsuyama was an easy pick at this event before posting back-to-back rounds of 69 at a difficult Torrey Pines en route to a T9 finish… The 2021 Masters champion has played TPC Scottsdale eight times and has yet to shoot worse than 2-under in any weekend round, including last season when he shot 66-69 to finish T8.
Odds: 28-1
Book Rank: 13th
World Rank: 20th
World/Field Rank: 18th
Last 7: 9, 48, 21, 34, 40, 25, 9
Phoenix History: 8, 42, 16, 15, 1, 1, 2, 4
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 67.90
Low Round: 63 (R3 2015)
Best at Scottsdale: 1st (2017, 2016)
3. Xander Schauffele
The world No. 6 is an easy choice this week, given that he was the 54-hole co-leader in this event two years ago before finishing T2, and then chasing it with a T3 last season… He arrives in Arizona off a top-15 finish at Torrey Pines and before that a T3 in Palm Springs… Schauffele has never missed a weekend in Phoenix; in fact has never finished outside the top 17 in five career starts at TPC Scottsdale.
Odds: 16-1
Book Rank: T4
World Rank: 6th
World/Field Rank: 6th
Last 7: 13, 3, 4, 9, 6, 3, 57
Phoenix History: 3, 2, 16, 10, 17
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 67.80
Low Round: 64 (R2 2021)
Best at Scottsdale: 2nd (2021)
2. Rory McIlroy
The 35-year-old Northern Ireland star enters in red-hot form, and as the world No. 1, posting seven straight top-4 finishes, including three victories, highlighted by a win in Dubai two weeks ago… Amazingly, McIlroy has only made a single career start at the Phoenix tournament, finishing T13 in 2021.
Odds: 9-1
Book Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 1st
World/Field Rank: 1st
Last 7: 1, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 1
Phoenix History: 13
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 67.75
Low Round: 64 (R4 2021)
Best at Scottsdale: 13th (2021)
1. Jon Rahm
The superstar from local Arizona State will be a favorite among the enormous Phoenix crowd: he has finished inside the top 16 in all seven of his starts at TPC Scottsdale, highlighted by a top-5 finish as an amateur in 2015… Only one of his 28 competitive rounds not being under par… Plus, that thing about not being the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world.
Odds: 7-1
Book Rank: 1st
World Rank: 3rd
World/Field Rank: 3rd
Last 7: 7, 1, 1, 8, 1, 4, 1
Phoenix History: 10, 13, 9, 10, 11, 16, 5
Phoenix Scoring Avg: 68.14
Low Round: 65 (R3 2018, R3 2017)
Best at Scottsdale: 5th (2015)
Next Five: Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala
