5. Sam Ryder
The 28-year-old has shown flashes early in his sophomore season on the PGA Tour, alternating two great performances (T4, 3) with two mediocre ones (T43, 54). If the pattern holds, Ryder should be among those to beat this week at the calendar-year finale.
Statistically, Ryder has been excellent in the new season, ranking 38th or better in every shots gained stat, including fifth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 3rd in strokes gained: total.
Odds: 50-1
World Rank: 142nd
Field Rank: 30th
Last Six: 54, 3, 43, 4, 28, 45
4. JJ Spaun
Last year’s runner-up at Sea Island has been a force during the fall series, finishing inside the top 15 in his last three starts.
Last week at El Camaleon, a 65-65-66 finish meant a T3 for the man who sits at 16th in the FedExCup Standings. In that stellar performance, Spaun co-led the field in birdies and was T2 in greens in regulation.
As dialed-in as Spaun has been with his irons, he should be very high on his chances at this shotmakers course.
Odds: 22-1
World Rank: 105th
Field Rank: 16th
Last Six: 3, 15, 10, 72, 41, 45
3. Harold Varner III
Aside from an inexplicably poor second round at the Sanderson Farms Classic that caused him to miss the cut, Varner has been one of the most consistent performers during the Fall Series, with finishes of T14, T15, and T6 in his other three starts.
Bookend 65s kept him in the mix in Mexico last week, where he was fourth in the field in birdies. He has played the RSM Classic just once, finishing badly in 2016 after an opening-round 66, but he has improved tremendously as a golfer since then, and seems prime to reach the world’s top 100 in the near future.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 154th
Field Rank: 34th
Last Six: 6, 15, MC, 14, 40, 53
2. Cameron Champ
The bomber among bombers has been one of the biggest stories of the fall season, winning the Sanderson Farms Championship, reaching T6 through 54 holes at TPC Summerlin, and then staying hot in Mexico last week, shooting a second-round 9-under 62 on his way to a T10 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
Champ currently leads the Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and driving distance, while also continuing to putt well. He is second in birdie average, and ninth in scoring average. Expect Champmania to last at least one more event.
Odds: 18-1
World Rank: 107th
Field Rank: 17th
Last Six: 10, 28, 1, 25, MC, 33
1. Webb Simpson
Easily the biggest name in the field, Webb is also the highest-ranked at No. 20 in the world. Simpson was at peak form at the end of last season, finishing the playoffs hot (T6, T4 in the last two legs), and playing great at the Ryder Cup.
In just one start in the new season, he did not really push the lead at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open, but he shot four rounds under 70 to finish T15 in a field that wasn’t awful.
Simpson has an excellent history in this event, finishing T12 in 2010, runner-up in 2011, and T7 in 2013. With such a weak group at Sea Island, it is difficult to not see Webb finishing highly.
Odds: 9-1
World Rank: 20th
Field Rank: 1st
Last Six: 15, 4, 6, 49, 28, 2
Next Five: Stephen Jaeger, CT Pan, Jim Furyk, Brian Gay, Richy Werenski