15. Phil Mickelson

There is no debate on who would make the best victory story this week. The now 50-year-old Phil Mickelson has claimed three of the four legs of the grand slam for seven years.

His one missing major? The U.S. Open, where he has finished runner-up SIX times.

And the site of the most crushing close call? That would be the 2006 edition at none other than Winged Foot, where Phil stood on the 72nd tee box with a one-stroke lead, took out his driver, sliced the bajeezus out of the ball, hit a hospitality tent, and carded a double-bogey.

He has maintained good spirits about it, and on many occasions has quipped about it with his typical risible self-deprecating humor (on twitter last week, he told somebody who bet on him to win the U.S. Open that they better hope he has at least a two-stroke lead heading to the last hole), but there has to have been some deep-seeded trauma associated with all the close calls.

This is the major he really, really wants, and this might be his last decent chance to do it. He can still bomb it, and his short game is historically elite, but his results have been mostly down since he won the 2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. Most concerning for Phil’s chances is that Winged Foot is a course where it is critical to keep the ball in play.

At last week’s Safeway Open at Silverado Country Club, which nobody is going to confuse for Winged Foot, he hit 12 fairways… for the entire week. He hit only one on Saturday and two on Sunday, leading to a T44 finish that was disappointing considering how many good scoring stretches he had.

If he is able to play smarter this week, he could become the oldest major winner in Tour history, with the current record being the 1968 PGA Championship victory of Julius Boros.

14. Hideki Matsuyama

With an awe-inspiring iron game, we find it shocking that the no-longer-so-young pride of Japan has yet to win a major.

Hideki Matsuyama, now 28-years old, finished second on Tour last year in strokes gained: tee-to-green, par for the course for him, but his putting has been a disaster in 2020 and remains the biggest reason he has not won anywhere in three years, although he has been marginally better in that regard as of late.

If Matsuyama can at least be field average on the greens this week, he stands an excellent shot at making some noise. He has finished T21 or better in his last three U.S. Open starts, and was a co-runner-up to Brooks Koepka at Erin Hills in 2017.

13. Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy became a new father last week, and celebrated it with his first top 10 since March, opening with a 64 at the Tour Championship and eventually finishing T8. He also delighted the everyman golfer at the end of round two, topping an approach shot into the water that may have been the most “one of us” shots by an elite golfer in recent memory.

For those keeping track, that’s six top 5s in six starts pre-COVID layoff, one top-8 in nine starts post-layoff. The world No. 4 set the tournament scoring record when he captured the 2011 U.S. Open by eight strokes, but has been all over the place since. In his last five U.S. Open starts, he has gone T9, CUT, CUT, CUT, T9, respectively and is still majorless since the 2014 PGA Championship.

Rory is as talented as anyone in the world, and nobody would be shocked if he puts together another amazing week, but his head just does not seem to be in it lately, making him really difficult to recommend on a bet, even if he is starting to trend back in the right direction.

12. Tiger Woods

Somebody with 82 career victories should not be this difficult to figure out. As for this week? We honestly have no idea.

It is a major, and it’s Tiger freakin’ Woods. He has won 15 of these things, three of those being U.S. Opens (2000, 2002, 2008). He also won The Masters last year. He won a PGA Tour event in Japan back in October. He has looked elite as recently as the Presidents Cup, where he carried a group of much younger players to a thrilling comeback victory.

That being said, Tiger has not looked much like Tiger as of late. His back is always a question mark, his putting seems to come and go, and he has made just four starts since the COVID layoff, with none of those resulting in better than a T37.

A good argument could be made for and against whether Tiger will be helped by there being no fans in attendance. He can make magic happen at any time, but he has not given much reason for optimism in 2020.

11. Matthew Fitzpatrick

In his last five starts, Fitzpatrick has played against five elite fields, and has been difficult to figure out. He has two missed cuts, but also a solo-third and two T6s.

The 26-year-old from England, who won the 2013 U.S. Amateur, has shown a penchant for this event, finishing T12 the past two years. He possesses a skillset compatible with the U.S. Open: he is powerful enough, he hits fairways, and he can putt, the latter of which is evidenced by his No. 2 ranking on Tour last year in strokes gained: putting.

Actually, now that he has the flat stick figured out, his game lacks a glaring weakness, although he can be a little hit-or-miss around the greens.

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