This year’s Florida swing on the PGA Tour got off to a thrilling start last week, when Sepp Straka overcame a five-stroke deficit to the highly-accomplished Daniel Berger to take the Honda Classic.
Now, the Tour makes the short trek from PGA National to Bay Hill Club and Lodge, the regular host venue of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. It will be the sixth edition without the event’s namesake watching over the tournament from his golf cart.
Another big presence missing this week in Orlando is last year’s API champion, Bryson DeChambeau, who withdrew citing a nagging injury.
Even without the man who won by a stroke a year ago, the field still comprises many of the Tour’s biggest names as they look to capture an event with a $12 million purse the week before they compete for an absurd $20 million purse at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship.
It is an event with a lot of honor and prestige, and it basically guarantees to have a winner who respects the legacy of late, great Arnold Palmer, aka The King.
Here are the fifteen (plus five extra) players we feel have the best shot:
15. Lee Westwood
The 48-year-old Englishman is among (if not first) the most experienced players in the API field this week, with his best result coming in last year’s edition, where he held the 54-hole lead before finishing solo-second to Bryson DeChambeau… Westwood’s results have not been super impressive in the year since (although he was solo-second again the following week at THE PLAYERS Championship), but he has made 11 of his last 12 cuts worldwide and has six finishes in the top 25 in 14 Bay Hill starts.
Odds: 125-1
World Rank: 45th
Field Rank: 27th
Last Six: 42, 21, 32, 20, MC, 71
Best at Bay Hill: 2nd (2021)
14. Max Homa
A T10 two weeks ago in his championship defense at The Genesis Invitational was Homa’s third finish inside the top 15 among his last four starts. A tie for 10th was also what he produced in this event a year ago, opening with a pair of 2-under 70s… The 31-year-old ranks positively in five of the six strokes: gained categories, and possesses the kind, jovial personality that would make him an especially appropriate champion at the tournament honoring the legendary Arnold Palmer.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 36th
Field Rank: 19th
Last Six: 10, 14, MC, 15, MC, 35
Best at Bay Hill: 10th (2021)
13. Paul Casey
The 44-year-old Englishman has been consistently excellent in the past year, with 11 top-10s worldwide in 27 starts since the beginning of the 2021 calendar year… Currently on a streak of five straight results of T25 or better, Casey has two top-10s in six career starts at Bay Hill, with the most recent being a T9 in 2017… In his most recent Tour start, he finished T15 at The Genesis Invitational, shooting par or better in all four rounds… At the very least, he seems like a good bet to make the cut, something he has done in 17 of his last 18 starts.
Odds: 33-1
World Rank: 27th
Field Rank: 12th
Last Six: 15, 24, 12, 16, 9, 31
Best at Bay Hill: 9th (2017)
12. Adam Scott
The accomplished Aussie has posted two top-5 finishes this season, with the most recent coming in his most recent start, which was a T4 two weeks ago at The Genesis Invitational, where he had three rounds of 68 or better… And speaking of two top-5s, that is also his record at Bay Hill, where he was T3 in both 2004 and 2014, the latter of which he opened with a 62, which is unheard of at this difficult track… His rank of 34 in the OWGR is second among Aussies (Cameron Smith, 10th), and first among Aussies in this week’s field.
Odds: 28-1
World Rank: 34th
Field Rank: 18th
Last Six: 4, 38, 9, 10, 37, 54
Best at Bay Hill: 3rd (2004, 2014)
11. Cameron Young
The impressive Tour rookie had another stellar start a week ago, shooting a final-round field-low 65 at the Honda Classic to finish T16, one week after capturing co-runner-up honors with Collin Morikawa at The Genesis Invitational the week prior… The 24-year-old is now 15th in the FedExCup standings with two T2s on the season, and four straight starts of T26 or better… However, this will be the Bay Hill debut for Young, who is currently second on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee.
Odds: 66-1
World Rank: 51st
Field Rank: 32nd
Last Six: 16, 2, 26, 20, 40, MC
Best at Bay Hill: Debut
10. Chris Kirk
Another among the former Georgia Bulldogs who are enjoying recent success on Tour, Kirk appears to have emerged from a recent slump, finishing T14 three weeks ago at the WM Phoenix Open and T7 at last week’s Honda Classic… Currently eighth on Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green and 18th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, Kirk has finished inside the top 15 in four of his last five API starts, including a T8 a year ago.
Odds: 80-1
World Rank: 94th
Field Rank: 57th
Last Six: 7, 14, MC, MC, 27, MC
Best at Bay Hill: 8th (2021)
9. Tyrrell Hatton
With Bryson DeChambeau withdrawing from this year’s event, Hatton is the most recent API winner in the field, taking the 2020 edition with a winning score of 4-under-par… In addition, the 30-year-old Brit placed T4 in 2017 and was somehow T21 last year despite two(!) rounds of 77… Hatton has not quite made the leap he was expected to after reaching the top 10 of the OWGR (he is currently 23rd), but he has more than proven that he knows what he is doing at Bay Hill… He finished T4 in his most recently European Tour start at the Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic, his third straight start in Europe with a finish of T16 or better.
Odds: 35-1
World Rank: 23rd
Field Rank: 8th
Last Six: 28, 4, 6, 9, 16, MC
Best at Bay Hill: 1st (2020)
8. Hideki Matsuyama
Coming into last week, it appeared there would be five top-10 players in the API field, but Matsuyama dropped from 10th to 11th after sitting out last week’s Honda Classic. Not that it means anything bad for his chances; the reigning Masters champion still sits atop the FedExCup standings with two wins in his last six Tour starts… His past results at Bay Hill are not exceptional, though, as a T6 in 2016 is his only top 10 in seven starts. His second-best result was the T18 he had last year where he at last was able to stay under par despite opening the week with a 75.
Odds: 22-1
World Rank: 11th
Field Rank: 5th
Last Six: 39, 8, 30, 1, 13, 1
Best at Bay Hill: 6th (2016)
7. Keith Mitchell
Heater alert! The 30-year-old University of Georgia product (the same program that produced Sepp Straka, the winner of last week’s Honda Classic) remains somewhat under-the-radar despite a T9 at the Honda, his fifth top-12 finish in his last six starts… Impressively, Mitchell ranks third on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 11th in scoring average, and 15th in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: total… In addition, Mitchell has two top-10s in three API starts, following a T6 in 2019 with a T5 in 2020.
Odds: 33-1
World Rank: 73rd
Field Rank: 45th
Last Six: 9, 10, 12, MC, 7, 12
Best at Bay Hill: 5th (2020)
6. Viktor Hovland
At fourth in the world rankings, the 24-year-old from Norway is the second highest-ranked player in this year’s field… In his last seven starts worldwide, Hovland has three victories and two additional T4s, one of his occurred in his most recent start at The Genesis Invitational where he made an incredible charge up the leaderboard in the middle rounds… The Tour leader in birdie average, Hovland has already played this event three times, which is great in that he has experience, but less great that he finished poorly in all three (T40, T42, T49). On the plus side, in that T49 a year ago he opened 69-66 before imploding all the weekend, so he has at least shown that he can play Bay Hill well, it will just be a matter of whether he can do it four four rounds.
Odds: 16-1
World Rank: 4th
Field Rank: 2nd
Last Six: 4, MC, 1, 4, 30, 1
Best at Bay Hill: 40th (2019)
5. Will Zalatoris
The recent Tour stretch of five tournaments in the last six with a first-time PGA Tour winner is a trend that works favorably to Zalatoris, who is arguably the best player in the field, if not the entire Tour without one as of yet… Last year’s Masters runner-up let a golden chance at last month’s Farmers Insurance Open, missing what would have been a clinching putt on the 72nd hole before getting ousted in a playoff by another first-timer in Luke List. He did manage to rebound with a respectable performance at the Genesis Invitational, finishing T26 and shooting par or better in all four rounds… Finished 10th in his debut at Bay Hill last year.
Odds: 25-1
World Rank: 30th
Field Rank: 15th
Last Six: 26, 2, 6, 37, MC, 14
Best at Bay Hill: 10th (2021)
4. Jon Rahm
The increased purse and winning share at this year’s event appears to have been enough to entice the World No. 1 to compete this year, as Rahm is easily the most marquee player in the field among those who did not make the trip to Bay Hill a year ago. Rahm’s profile has reached the point where a T21 two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational, which included a Sunday 65, felt enormously disappointing. His 73 in the second round at Riviera was somehow only his first over-par round on Tour since July. The Tour leader in strokes gained: off-the-tee and greens in regulation will be playing the Arnold Palmer Invitational for the first time; how much of a worry should that be? Absolutely none.
Odds: 9-1
World Rank: 1st
Field Rank: 1st
Last Six: 21, 10, 3, 14, 2, MC
Best at Bay Hill: Debut
3. Scottie Scheffler
After capturing his maiden PGA Tour victory three weeks ago at the W Phoenix Open, Scheffler’s expected hangover at the following week’s Genesis Invitational did not happen, as the 25-year-old used a third-round 65 at Riviera to vault into the Sunday leadership mix before finishing T7… Scheffler now sits sixth in the world rankings, and third in the FedExCup standings with four top 10s in his last seven starts… He arrives to Bay Hill, where he finished T15 in his only start two years ago, armed with the Tour’s seventh best scoring average.
Odds: 18-1
World Rank: 6th
Field Rank: 4th
Last Six: 7, 1, 20, 25, 2, 57
Best at Bay Hill: 15th (2020)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
There are a number of premier English players in this year’s field, and none have been playing better lately than Fitzpatrick. The 24-year-old Northwestern University product has top 10s in his last two PGA Tour results, most recently a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open earlier this month. In addition, he has a win and a T2 in his last two European Tour starts… Statistically, he has been especially impressive, ranking second on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green and strokes gained: total, fifth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, sixth in scoring average, and 12th in strokes gained: putting… Fitzpatrick has also posted top 10s in his last three API starts, including a solo-second to Francesco Molinari in 2019… He would also perfectly fit the recent trend of first-time PGA Tour winners… If there is any concern this week, it is that he withdrew from The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, with what was believed to be an illness of some sort.
Odds: 28-1
World Rank: 25th
Field Rank: 10th
Last Six: 10, 6, 12, 2, 64, 30
Best at Bay Hill: 2nd (2019)
1. Rory McIlroy
Off top-12 finishes in his last six full-field events, including a win at October’s THE CJ CUP @ Summit, Rory is back up to fifth in the world rankings after spending a considerable amount of last year out of the top-10… McIlroy is the third highest-ranked player in the field after Rahm and Hovland, but his history at Bay Hill makes him the favorite this week. He has finished in the top 10 in each of the past five years in this event, including a win in 2018 where he had one of the all-time great closing stretches in a Tour event, absolutely exploding to the top of the leaderboard on Sunday’s back nine… He has however, faded hard on the weekend his last two starts here, both times shooting a 76 on Sunday.
Odds: 12-1
World Rank: 5th
Field Rank: 3rd
Last Six: 10, 3, 12, 18, 6, 1
Best at Bay Hill: 1st (2018)
Next Five: Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Cameron Tringale, Marc Leishman, Jason Day
