Looking back to the early part of the 2025 PGA Tour season, it’s almost laughable that World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler was viewed as getting off to a “slow start.” Every commentator should have added a qualifier – “by his impossibly high standards.”
Scheffler’s amazing golf game is back on its axis. His “slow start” consisted of six finishes of T-11 or better in his first eight starts, plus a T-20 at the The Players Championship and T-25 at the Phoenix Open.
Scheffler now owns victories in three of his past four starts, headlined by his third career major title at the PGA Championship. The only non-win in that span was a top-5 finish (T-4) at Colonial.
So as much as I might like to go against the chalk, my pick to win the 125th U.S. Open this week at Oakmont Country Club has to be Scheffler. This will be a record 10th U.S. Open at Oakmont – a brutal par-70, 7,372-yard layout whose two par-5 holes measure 632 and 611 yards plus two 500-yard par-4 holes in the finishing four.
Scheffler won the PGA at extremely difficult Quail Hollow going away by four strokes over his nearest competition. Given the difficulty and depth of the rain-soaked rough at Oakmont that some have called “savage,” it could be much the same story for Scheffler, who will be seeking to add the third leg of the Grand Slam to his two Masters’ titles and the PGA.
Once you get past Scheffler, the most obvious threat is defending U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau, who won by a stroke at Pinehurst No. 2 when Rory McIlroy bogeyed three of the last four holes. DeChambeau’s length off the tee always is an advantage, and he has eight T-10 finishes in 10 events, including a win at the recent LIV Golf event in Korea plus a T-5 at the Masters and a T-2 at the PGA.
My No.3 pick is Shane Lowry, who was the 54-hole leader the last time the U.S. Open visited Oakmont in 2016 when Dustin Johnson was the winner. Lowry has two second-place finishes this season but shot a final-round 81 at the Masters and missed cut at the PGA.
The fourth slot goes to Joaquin Niemann, who has been super-hot on the LIV Golf circuit with four wins in eight events, including last week at LIV Virginia. Niemann was T-8 at the PGA but that was his first career top-10 in a major. The No.5 is Xander Schauffele, who won two major titles last year but has only one top-10 in nine events this season. However, Schauffele has seven top-10 finishes in eight appearances at the U.S. Open with a worst of T-14.
At No.6 is Sepp Straka, who owns two PGA Tour victories in 2025 and leads the Tour in greens in regulation. The Austrian, however, has missed the cut at both majors this season.
Sweet-swinging Ludvig Aberg is my No.7 pick this week. The young Swede, who won the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines earlier in the year, seems to be finding his game again after a bit of a rough patch. Justin Thomas is No.8. The Alabama product, who has a win and three runner-ups this season, would be higher but has struggled in majors since winning his second PGA in 2022 (one top-25 against six MCs in 12 major starts).
At No.9 is Hideki Matsuyama, who missed the cut at the PGA to end a streak of 19 made cuts in the majors but should get back on track this week. Collin Morikawa last won 19 months ago in Japan but has two seconds this season and is my No.10 pick.
I skipped over McIlroy, who completed the career Grand Slam with a win at the Masters but finished outside the top 40 at the PGA and missed the cut last week at the Canadian Open with extremely poor driving. Oakmont is not a good venue for players tinkering with the driver.
Top 10 Power Picks
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Bryson DeChambeau
3. Shane Lowry
4. Joaquin Niemann
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Sepp Straka
7. Ludvig Aberg
8. Justin Thomas
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Collin Morikawa
