The 2021 major championship season came to a close Sunday, with American prodigy Collin Morikawa outlasting three-time major champion Jordan Spieth at The Open Championship.
The organizers of this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities would likely be happy to note that it was their inaugural tournament in 2019, where Morikawa burst onto the PGA Tour scene, finishing T2 in a thrilling close that saw 20-year-old Matthew Wolff eagle the 18th to nip Morikawa and Tour heavyweight Bryson DeChambeau.
Following an overseas major means the field is not especially strong in Minnesota this week, but there is some star power, with the tournament being headlined by world No. 2 Dustin Johnson and red-hot world No. 9 Louis Oosthuizen.
With focus turning towards the upcoming FedExCup playoffs, much of the field will be playing with a sense of urgency.
Here are the players we like best to secure their spot:
15. Hank Lebioda
Going perhaps a bit under-the-radar, the 27-year-old Florida State product has posted three consecutive top-10s, with four of those 12 rounds being a 66 or better.
Leboida’s putting has been exceptional during his recent hot streak (top 10 in the field in strokes gained: putting in all three), and he currently ranks 18th on Tour in greens in regulation. It would be easy to see him improve on last year’s T26 at the 3M, where he shot 65-69 over the weekend.
Odds To Win: 40-1
World Ranking: 164
14. Lucas Herbert
A missed cut at The Open was a surprise for the Australian, who had arrived in the U.K. hot, following a T18-T19 stretch in the U.S., chased with a win and a T4 on the European Tour.
Herbert currently ranks 50th in the OWGR. He was in excellent position on Sunday at The Memorial, before getting derailed by back-to-back double bogeys on the back nine, and did not seem to let it bother him going to Connecticut the following week.
He may lack experience in this kind of PGA Tour event, but his length should be a benefit, and he has played well against competition that was at least comparable.
Odds To Win: 50-1
World Ranking: 50
13. Rickie Fowler
A 5-under Sunday at The Open Championship was the field low, but it was really just cosmetic at that point, as a Friday 72 and a Saturday 75 prevented him from getting into serious contention.
Now outside the world’s Top 100, the affable 32-year-old sits in a tenuous position of 124th in the FedExCup standings, having never missed a single FedExCup playoff.
A T8 two months ago at the PGA Championship is Rickie’s only top 10 on the season, but at least he is showing flashes again. He just need to figure out how to put them all together for one tournament.
Odds To Win: 40-1
World Ranking: 164
12. Seamus Power
The latest survivor of an ultra-long playoff, the biggest trend on Tour right now, is 34-year-old Power of Ireland. Power notched his first PGA Tour victory at last week’s opposite-field Barbasol Championship by outlasting J.T. Poston through six playoff holes.
As far as betting goes, Power is no longer playing “quietly” good. That win was his sixth straight top-10 finishes, with four of those being in the top 10.
There could be some concern this week, given the emotional toll of the overtime triumph, plus he FINALLY got off the FedExCup bubble (125th to 69th last week), so the sense of urgency might not be there as much.
Still, it cannot be argued that he isn’t hot.
Odds To Win: 60-1
World Ranking: 113
11. Robert MacIntyre
He may not have been the best 24-year-old at Royal St. George’s last week, but a T8 for the world’s best Scottish golfer was a second finish inside the top 12 in 2021 majors.
MacIntyre has done most of his damage in Europe, with a win and five-runner ups in the three seasons preceding the current one.
High finishes at The Masters and the WGC-Dell Technologies Match play show that his game is likely to transfer to the States as well.
He had an impressive 12 birdies over the week at The Open.
Odds To Win: 28-1
World Ranking: 48
10. Matthew Wolff
A then 20-year-old Wolff burst onto the golf season two years ago at the inaugural 3M Open, outdueling Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa to win in just his third start as a professional.
The former Oklahoma State star has flashed greatness at times since, particularly when he finished solo-second at the 2020 U.S. Open, but since, he either looks like he is about to join the world’s elite, or he is in a tailspin that he cannot get out of.
Wolff is coming off a two-month mental health break, which will hopefully have him in better position as he looks to snag his first top-10 since October. He was T12 a year ago in his 3M Open championship defense.
Odds To Win: 28-1
World Ranking: 38
9. Dylan Frittelli
A week contending at The Open Championship was a surprise for the 31-year-old Texas product, as he came into Royal St. George’s in a bitter 10-start slump with eight missed cuts, a T46, and a T56.
Now, with a fifth-place major finish on his resume, he should be coming into the twin cities with considerable confidence. For the season, his three top 10s have come at two majors and a WGC event, but he has been miserable otherwise.
Is the 3M big enough for him to contend? He was T18 here a year ago.
Odds To Win: 50-1
World Ranking: 78
8. Tony Finau
After a rare slump from the top 10 magician, Finau hopes he got his season back on track with a 3-under 67 at Royal St. George’s that moved him 18 spots up the final Open Championship leaderboard, into a share of 15th.
Still looking for that first win since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, Finau finished runner-up in three consecutive starts in January, but has been a little hit-or-miss since.
Statistically, he is still playing well with everything that isn’t his putter. He is 7th on Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green and 10th in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
He was T3 at last year’s 3M, stagnating down the stretch after asserting himself as the favorite early on Sunday.
Odds To Win: 14-1
World Ranking: 19
7. Bubba Watson
The 12-time Tour winner arrives in Minnesota as one of the fresher players, after being forced to miss last week’s Open Championship due to a direct exposure to someone with COVID-19, although he is vaccinated and has not tested positive himself.
Two weeks ago, Bubba finished T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a week before collapsing late Sunday while holding a lead at the Travelers Championship.
It has been a bit of a bounce-back year for the 42-year-old who has eight top-20 finishes on the season, and has eclipsed his earnings from both the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
Odds To Win: 40-1
World Ranking: 56
6. Patrick Reed
A typical season from Reed, with a number of excellent results in high-profile events, saw an atypical slip in the U.K. a week ago, with the world No. 13 missing the cut by a stroke at The Open Championship.
That could end up being a positive for his chances at the 3M, which he took off last year after shooting four rounds in the 60s on his way to a T23 in 2019.
Reed has posted four top-10s since winning January’s Farmers Insurance Open, with the most recent being a T8 at The Memorial Tournament. He currently ranks eighth on Tour in both strokes gained: putting and strokes gained: total.
Odds To Win: 20-1
World Ranking: 13
5. Cameron Tringale
Tringale had cooled down after posting seven top-20s between November and May, but he seems to be heating back up at the right time, posting a T14 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago before contending through two rounds at last week’s Open Championship.
The 33-year-old was among the enormous T3 tie here a year ago, playing the weekend in an absurd 63-66. He also boasts the Tour’s 16th best scoring average, and is 21st in strokes gained: putting.
Odds To Win: 28-1
World Ranking: 77
4. Brian Harman
Mostly off the strength of a world-class short game, Harman’s T19 at last week’s Open Championship was his tenth result of at least that high in the 2021 calendar year.
In his last 11 starts, he has two missed cuts, two of just three in 21 starts on the season, with each of his nine made weekends resulting in a finish inside the top 20. He was T41 here a year ago, bouncing back nicely from an opening 76 with a Friday 64. He played the weekend 68-67.
Harman has the Tour’s 13th best scoring average, which is passed by only a handful of players in the 3M field.
Odds To Win: 28-1
World Ranking: 44
3. Emiliano Grillo
Coming off three straight missed cuts, Grillo tied his career-best major effort, finishing T12 at The Open Championship. That should give him some confidence heading into TPC Twin Cities, where he finished T3 a year ago after a blazing 64-65 weekend.
The 28-year-old from Argentina has a career-high 11 top 25s on the year, and ranks fifth on Tour in greens in regulation, and 12th in strokes gained: approach-the-green.
Odds To Win: 40-1
World Ranking: 67
2. Louis Oosthuizen
Another major, another high finish with Sunday disappointment for Louie, who led after each of the first three rounds of The Open Championship last week, only to shoot 1-over and finish T3.
It was the third straight major where the 38-year-old has contended, but fell short. Since winning the 2010 Open Championship, Oosthuizen has finished runner-up in six majors (at least once in each) with two other third-places. He also has U.S. runner-ups at THE PLAYERS and the WGC-Match Play.
Obviously, the 3M Open has nowhere near that kind of prestige, so the pressure will be lower, but it might be asking a lot from the world No. 9, even with six straight top 20s, with three runner-ups and that T3.
Odds To Win: 14-1
World Ranking: 9
1. Dustin Johnson
The major season as a whole was a major disappointment for the world No. 2 and reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year, but at least DJ is getting himself in the mix again, contending through two rounds at The Open Championship before a third-round 73 ended his chances of a third major win. He rebounded nicely for a T8, his second top-10 in his past four starts.
Despite an underwhelming season at large, DJ does still sport the Tour’s second-best scoring average, and should feel comfortable at TPC Twin Cities. He’s not late 2020 Dustin Johnson, but he looks closer than he has at any point in 2021.
Odds To Win: 7-1
World Ranking: 2
Next Five: Luke List, Doug Ghim, Cam Davis, Bo Hoag, Joel Dahmen
