10. Tiger Woods
And now the man who holds CBS’s weekend ratings in his hands: Tiger Woods. Unfathomably stuck at 14 majors for more than 10 years now, a largely-remarkable comeback season could become special if he were to win the year’s final major.
Despite questionable form going into last month’s Open Championship, Tiger contended for four days at Carnoustie, even holding a back-nine lead at one point on Sunday.
In that final round, Tiger looked bar-none the most focused and dialed in among those in the leadership mix for 10 holes, but as soon as he got that lead, he seemed to psych himself out.
It borders on insane that a man with 79 career PGA Tour victories could be uncomfortable holding a lead, but with none of those 79 victories coming in the final round, the best frontrunner in sports history needs to learn it all over again. We saw the same thing from Phil Mickelson during his recent five-year winless drought. Apparently, winning can be unlearned.
At different points in the 2018 season, Tiger has struggled badly with first his driving, and later his putting. Both seem to be largely remedied now, and combined with a stellar iron game that transcends his years of back troubles, Tiger stands a good chances of writing the year’s best story.
Odds: 28-1
World Rank: 51
2018 Masters: 32
2018 U.S. Open: MC
2018 British Open: 6
Last Six: 31, 6, 4, MC, 23, 11
2018 Wins: 0
9. Brooks Koepka
As we saw at Shinnecock Hills, where he became the first back-to-back winner of the U.S. Open since the early 90s, a confident Koepka is a scary thing. It did not matter that the venues of those two national opens were diametric opposites.
Truly a rare breed, it is almost unfair that a man of his stature and power can also be such a fantastic putter, and he shines brightest in the majors, with two wins, 7 top-10s, and 12 top-25s in just 19 starts.
Koepka had us worried for a few starts. He followed up a mediocre performance at The Open Championship with a badly missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open, which had us wondering if the wrist injury that cost him over three months of 2018 was flaring up again, an injury that came to light after shocking last-place finish in January’s Sentry Tournament of Champions.
However, Koepka answered those concerns with a fifth-place finish at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, where he led a stacked field in strokes gained: tee-to-green. We no longer see any reason to believe that he is not good to go at Bellerive.
Odds: 20-1
World Rank: 4
2018 Masters: DNP
2018 U.S. Open: 1
2018 British Open: 39
Last Six: 5, MC, 39, 19, 1, 30
2018 Wins: 1 (U.S. Open)
8. Jordan Spieth
Pros: It’s a major
Cons: Pretty much everything else
The 25-year-old three-time major champion can become just the sixth golfer in PGA Tour history to complete the career grand slam, if he can put aside his recent troubles and show up on the big stage in the way we have all become accustomed to seeing.
Despite coming into his defense of his 2017 Open Championship in dreadful form, Spieth flashed his elite shot-making prowess to take a 54-hole co-lead into Sunday.
That final round, however, was a complete disaster; he did not card a single birdie, could not make a putt to save his life, and as a result, he fell to a disappointing T9. He was upbeat afterwards and sounded determined to learn from his failure, but if he did learn that lesson, it did not materialize in Akron, as Spieth finished T60 at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, showing dismal accuracy in the process, hitting just 37% of his fairways and 56% of his greens.
On the plus side, though, he did gain nearly three strokes on the field with his putter, a part of his game that has been a nightmare most of the season.
We all know that Spieth shows up big for the majors, and the oddsmakers have taken a note of it, offering only slight discounts on Jordan this week. He should be exceptionally motivated this week, given the historical implications and a tenacious desire to silence the critics who are wondering how he has gone more than 12 months without a victory now. Bellerive is a course that perfect suits his A game, much like the one he brought to the first three days at Carnoustie.
Odds: 20-1
World Rank: 8
2018 Masters: 3
2018 U.S. Open: MC
2018 British Open: 9
Last Six: 60, 9, 42, MC, MC, 32
2018 Wins: 0
7. Francesco Molinari
What do we make of the banality of the Champion Golfer of the Year’s T39 performance at Firestone last week? I mean, objectively he always plays kind of boring; he is basically the Memphis Grizzlies of golf, but after going on the hot streak of all hot streaks over his previous six outings (three wins, two runner-ups, and a T25), is it too soon to wonder if Molinari has moved from the “hot” column to the “not”, a move that tragically ended the B-Sharps?
Short answer? Probably. Many golfers struggle the week after their breakthrough major championship, and Molinari was not someone who simply got lucky at Carnoustie, he was a stone-cold stud with ice veins at one of the world’s toughest courses.
It still feels unreal that he went bogey-free FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND, and that was while having to deal with the Tiger Woods circus for his final 18. With his tee-to-green game, Molinari stands an excellent chance at pulling off the 2014 Rory McIlroy Special: a win in both The Open Championship and The PGA.
Although, to be fair, Rory also won the WGC-Bridgestone in his lone start between those majors. Perhaps a better comparison would be 2008 Padraig Harrington, who played that three-week stretch WIN-T20-WIN.
Odds: 33-1
World Rank: 6
2018 Masters: 20
2018 U.S. Open: 25
2018 British Open: 1
Last Six: 39, 1, 2, 1, 25, 2
2018 Wins: 3 (British Open, QL National, BMW PGA Champ.)
6. Justin Rose
Hands-down the most consistent golfer on the planet over the past 11 months, with four victories among 18 top 10s in just 22 starts worldwide. We thought Carnoustie had put an end to his heater, but then he played the weekend like he had been shot out of a cannon, moving from the 36-hole cut-line to 2nd place on the final leaderboard, making a joke of a previously intimidating 18th hole in the process.
Not that any course is a poor fit for him right now, but Bellerive should be a course that widens his eyes beyond human limits.
However, Rose is an official “wild card” after he unexpectedly withdrew from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with a back injury. He called it precautionary, but only Rose really knows how bad it is. WGC events are very lucrative ($10 million purse) and he had finished in the top 5 in three of his last five trips to Firestone. One would think that if he could have played, he would have played, but perhaps we are understating a bigger desire to win a second career major.
Those willing to take the gamble on Rose would be happy to know that he is somehow tied with Rickie Fowler for 7th best odds in the field (22-1), which seems absurdly good given his form.
Odds: 22-1
World Rank: 3
2018 Masters: 12
2018 U.S. Open: 10
2018 British Open: 2
Last Six: 2, 9, 10, 6, 1, 23
2018 Wins: 1 (Fort Worth Inv.)
5. Justin Thomas
After four months of un-Thomaslike results; just one top 10 in 8 events, the reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year played himself back into the winner’s circle for the 3rd time in the 2018 season, tying Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson for the season high, at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
In the final year of the event at Firestone Country Club, the 25-year-old Thomas will forever be listed as the last winner of a tournament that defined prime Tiger Woods (8 victories).
The win, which never felt in doubt on Sunday, was decided by a four-stroke margin, and really could not have come at a better time, as Thomas prepares to defend his 2017 PGA Championship breakthrough. His major season has not been special, he finished the first three T17, T25, CUT respectively, but if his Akron momentum carries over into St. Louis, the World No. 2 could regain his former one-month status as No 1, and suddenly he would be in the driver’s seat for back-to-back Player of the Year awards., something that has not been done since Tiger in 2006 and 2007.
Firestone Country Club and Bellerive are highly comparable in that they are both shotmaker’s courses that rewarded many of the same kinds of strengths. Thomas was dialed-in with his irons at the Bridgestone, leading the field in strokes gained: approach-the-green, and finishing second in greens in regulation.
That pristine iron play consistently led to more opportunities on the greens, which Thomas took advantage of, finishing fourth in the field in strokes gained: putting. Thomas has shown the ability to win in bunches, making a letdown week in Missouri feel unlikely.
Odds: 14-1
World Rank: 2
2018 Masters: 17
2018 U.S. Open: 25
2018 British Open: MC
Last Six: 1, MC, 8, 56, 25, 8
2018 Wins: 3 (CJ Cup, Honda Classic, WGC-Bridgestone Inv.)
4. Henrik Stenson
We are unlikely to win over golf-enthusiast Charles Barkley with this explanation of why we are so ebullient on the chances of Sweden’s second-highest ranked golfer to depart Bellerive with the Wanamaker Trophy this week, but the analytics on Henrik Stenson are incredible.
The smooth swinging Stenson is unfathomably accurate, ranking first on Tour in greens in regulation, and second in driving accuracy, trailing only 49-year-old Ken Duke who averages just 270 yards off the tees (Stenson averages 287).
He is also second in strokes gained: approach-the-green, third in strokes gained: tee-to-green, third in scoring average, first in scrambling from 10-20 yards, fifth in three-putt avoidance, third in par-4 scoring average, and third in bogey avoidance, all especially relevant statistics for this course. The fact that someone with that set of stats can draw 50-1 odds is something that a misunderstood villain from a classic 1987 film that I’m too macho to admit to liking might call “inconceivable”.
Barkley would probably argue, very eloquently, that the stats are meaningless in the absence of quality results. That is not to say that Stenson has not had good finishes – we went T5 and T6 in the year’s first two majors – but he currently is winless worldwide for the first time since 2015, and is lacking a top 3 finish for the first time since 2011. His last two starts were unimpressive: he finished T35 at The Open Championship, and T39 at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Some of that might be due to a minor elbow injury he suffered in an off-course accident prior to withdrawing from the Scottish Open in early July; he admitted he was not 100% at The Open, but the fact that he teed up at Firestone last week should be a sign that he is ready to go.
The man with an Open Championship and an Olympic Silver Medal to his name has also shown a penchant for the PGA Championship, where he has five top-7 finishes in his last eight starts, and has landed outside the top 25 just once in that span.
Odds: 50-1
World Rank: 17
2018 Masters: 5
2018 U.S. Open: 6
2018 British Open: 35
Last Six: 39, 35, 6, 26, 13, 23
2018 Wins: 0
3. Jason Day
The 2015 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits, Day has made a habit of showing up big at the year’s final major, with five straight top-15 finishes, with the win and a 2016 runner-up among those. Even in his “down” year in 2017, Day finished T9 and was in contention until one disastrous hole, a quadruple-bogey on the par-4 18th torpedoed his chances.
One year later, there is reason to again be bullish on the 12-time PGA Tour winner. Much like when he was ranked No. 1 in the World, Day boasts the Tour’s best short game, as evidenced by his first place standing in strokes gained: putting and his second place standing in strokes gained: around-the-green. He is also regarded as the Tour’s best sand player, which could pay off big at a Bellerive Course that is surfeited with bunkers. Day might be the most capable in the field at handling the course’s length while simultaneously conquering its plethora of short-game difficulties.
Day has two victories on the season, and is fifth in the FedExCup Standings, although a back-nine meltdown last week at Firestone was concerning, where he birdied three consecutive holes and then played the remaining six holes in 5-over. We think Day is mature enough to not let that memory be a detriment to him this week, however.
Odds: 20-1
World Rank: 10
2018 Masters: 20
2018 U.S. Open: MC
2018 British Open: 17
Last Six: 10, 17, 12, MC, 44, 5
2018 Wins: 2 (Farmers Ins. Open, Wells Fargo Champ.)
2. Dustin Johnson
World No. 1 Dustin Johnson was the betting favorite going into last month’s Open Championship, a distinction that was more than justified after he had finished solo-third at the U.S. Open in his last start, preceded by a runaway 6-stroke victory at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Shockingly, DJ missed the cut at Carnoustie, his only missed cut in 15 starts this season, and just his second result outside the top 17.
A man who spent WAY too long on top of the unofficial “best players without a major” list, the hilariously laconic 34-year-old has seen many prodigious improvements in his game over his 11 full seasons on Tour, but perhaps no change has been more conspicuous than his ability to keep a short memory.
Few players have been better in recent years at bouncing back from failures. That strength was exhibited again the week following The Open Championship, as DJ transmuted a four-way 54-hole tie into a 23-under-par 3 stroke victory, his third of the season and the 19th of his career.
The following week at Firestone, he did not win, which can be imputed to a 69-71 start that left his 11 strokes off the 36-hole lead, but after a putter change, Johnson was back in World No. 1 form, exploding up the leaderboard with rounds of 66 and 64. He finished in a tie for third place, his 10th top 10 of the year.
Going into the season’s final major, Johnson is again the betting favorite, and the only player in the field with single-digit odds (8-1). Is he worthy of that trust after disappointing at Carnoustie? Well, if his results do not say enough, consider these statistics:
1st in strokes gained: total
1st in strokes gained: tee-to-green
1st in strokes gained: off-the-tee
1st in birdie average
1st in scoring average
1st in rough proximity
2nd in fairway proximity
2nd in putting average
2nd in 3-putt avoidance
2nd in bogey avoidance
6th in driving distance
8th in strokes gained: approach-the-green
10th in scrambling
Yeah, he should probably be the betting favorite.
Odds: 8-1
World Rank: 1
2018 Masters: 10
2018 U.S. Open: 3
2018 British Open: MC
Last Six: 3, 1, MC, 3, 1, 8
2018 Wins: 3 (Sentry ToC, FedEx St Jude Classic, RBC Canadian Open)
1. Rory McIlroy
Two of Rory’s four career majors happened at the PGA Championship, with the then-23 year old obliterating the 2012 field at Kiawah Island in a record-setting 8-stroke romp (and that was WITH a second round 75), and more modestly prevailing two years later at Valhalla by a single stroke over the ultimate bridesmaid, Phil Mickelson.
Two T3s and a T8 give McIlroy a PGA Championship resume that would get him hired as a Fortune 400 executive on the spot, even if he used lavender-scented cardstock, and the HR Director was Piotr Wozniacki. He has been really, really good.
Surprisingly, Rory has not won another major since his Valhalla triumph four years ago, and he only has this year’s PGA and next year’s Masters to go if he wants to win another before he turns 30. Coming off an essentially lost 2017 season, McIlroy has flashed his old dominance at times in 2018, particularly when a fourth round sprint catalyzed an emphatic victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but largely, it has felt like one step forward and two steps back. He made the final pairing at The Masters, but with the career Grand Slam on the line, he executed a round so uninspiring that it almost looked like it was on purpose. He also squandered late leads in two premiere European Tour events. He has many events this season where he just could not avoid the one big numbers.
That 2018 inconsistency, however, is what made his Open Championship a pleasant surprise. Finishing T2, his 8th top-10 in a major since his last victory, Rory’s linescore (is that a thing in golf?) was 69-69-70-70. Even there though, he had a chance on the final hole to take the solo clubhouse lead, but his approach was well right of the flag and he was unable to convert the long birdie attempt. It feels like prime Rory would have landed that shot within five feet, although maybe the nostalgia is remembering him as more clutch than he was. I’m told I do that when I argue that my childhood hero Mark Price was better than Stephen Curry and his Dream Team supporting cast.
Rory made a strong push to enter Bellivere off a victory, reaching 11-under-par and the final Sunday pairing at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Attempting to put pressure on leader Justin Thomas, he fell well off the pace with four bogeys in a six-hole stretch mid-round, and a 3-over 73 dropped him into sixth place, conjuring up memories of Day 4 at Augusta.
Still, despite some un-Roryesque moments in 2018, we love his fit for the course and the way his game is coming back together (last Sunday notwithstanding), and think he adds another success story to the uplifting 2018 trend of winless droughts expiring.
Odds: 12-1
World Rank: 5
2018 Masters: 5
2018 U.S. Open: MC
2018 British Open: 2
Last Six: 6, 2, 28, 12, MC, 8
2018 Wins: 1 (Arnold Palmer Inv.)
