20. Webb Simpson
In a 2018 season replete with unforgettable performances, nobody has executed a higher degree of dominance in a four-day span than Webb Simpson did in his outright obliteration of the field at THE PLAYERS Championship in May. With scores of 66-63-68 over the first three rounds, the 32-year-old North Carolina native built up the luxury of a 7-stroke lead, and was able to cruise on Sunday to win the event by four strokes, his first victory since 2014.
This season has been the embodiment of what had to be countless hours of tireless work. One of the poster boys for the struggle of former long-putters after the 2016 ban on anchored putting, Simpson has remade his putting stroke, and in two years has gone from 177th in strokes gained: putting to his current position of 6th. It is an inspiring and unprecedented turnaround that has transformed him into one of the Tour’s most well-rounded competitors.
Outside of his comeback effort to win the 2012 U.S. Open, where he came into the final round well out of the lead, posted a number, and then chilled in the clubhouse while the leaders redefined “choking”, Simpson has had nothing resembling success on the major stage, but his improved putting stroke has engendered better results. He followed a career-best T20 at The Masters, with a T10 at the U.S. Open, just his second top-10 in 29 career majors, and then posted a career-best T12 at last month’s Open Championship.
And if Webb needs further motivation this week, he currently has a tenuous hold on the 8th position in the Ryder Cup Standings, with the top 8 automatically making the team at the conclusion of the PGA Championship. If he wants to be on that team, he cannot afford to not bring his best to Bellerive.
Odds: 75-1
World Rank: 20
2018 Masters: 20
2018 U.S. Open: 10
2018 British Open: 12
Last Six: 24, 12, 47, MC, 10, MC
2018 Wins: 1 (THE PLAYERS Champ.)
19. Jon Rahm
Just 23 years old, Rahm has ascended as high as No. 2 in the World Rankings (he is currently 7th) and very clearly has one of the most intimidating games in the world, and it would be shocking if he does not remain among the game’s elite for at least the next ten years. Is his game major ready, though?
It does not really look like it. He already has five career wins worldwide, and an astonishing 25 top-10s in just 57 starts, but just one of those came in a major. A fourth place finish at this year’s Masters was a positive step, although he never truly threatened the leaders, but he was abysmal at the U.S. Open and Open Championship, shooting +20 over his four obviously weekendless rounds.
Rahm also has seen a troubling trend of stumbling down the stretch in 2018. He is second on Tour in first round scoring average, but that balloons to 132nd in round four, a proclivity that was on display in Akron last week, where Rahm shot a first round 6-under 64, but played Sunday in a birdie-free 3-over 73.
Would we be surprised if Rahm adds a Wanamaker Trophy to his rapidly-expanding hardware collection? No, he might possess more pure talent than anyone in the game, and he does things off the tee that forces the Golf Channel’s live feed to require proof of adulthood, but we are not quite ready to predict a major victory. Get him in futures if you can, but spend your cash elsewhere this week.
Odds: 25-1
World Rank: 7
2018 Masters: 4
2018 U.S. Open: MC
2018 British Open: MC
Last Six: 17, MC, 4, 5, MC, 5
2018 Wins: 2 (Open de Espana, CareerBuilder Chall.)
18. Thorbjorn Olesen
Given how hot Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, and Francesco Molinari were going into their 2018 major championship triumphs, it would be wise to take notice of how fantastic Denmark’s Thorbjorn Olesen has been as of late.
Now ranked a career high 40th in the OWGR, among Olesen’s last seven starts worldwide includes a win at the Italian Open, a runner-up finish at the BMW International Open, a T3 at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, a T6 finish at the Irish Open, and a T12 at The Open Championship. At 75-1 odds, Olesen presents fantastic value.
Odds: 75-1
World Rank: 40
2018 Masters: DNQ
2018 U.S. Open: MC
2018 British Open: 12
Last Six: 3, 12, 6, MC, 2, MC
2018 Wins: 1 (Italian Open)
17. Phil Mickelson
A humdrum four-tournament stretch and irrelevance (although he has not avoided controversy) in the major season might have extracted some of the luster of what had been a phenomenal comeback season for the 48-year-old, but make no mistake about it, Phil will be prepared for the challenge Bellerive will provide.
He has been maddeningly inconsistent off the tees this season, but he is still a shotmaker who scrambles well and putts magnificently. If he does not spend too much time in the largely unforgiving rough, it would not be shocking to anyone if he contends in the year’s final major for the first time since his runner-up to Rory McIlroy in 2014.
Mickelson added a 43rd career victory earlier this year at the WGC-Mexico, and that kind of cache goes a long way for a man who refuses to age poorly.
Odds: 100-1
World Rank: 21
2018 Masters: 36
2018 U.S. Open: 48
2018 British Open: 24
Last Six: 24, 24, MC, 65, 48, 12
2018 Wins: 1 (WGC-Mexico Champ.)
16. Tony Finau
Only one man has finished in the top 10 of all three of the PGA Tour’s 2018 majors so far, and given that we are talking about it in this space, Tony Finau would be a sage guess as that man. At this point in his career, Finau has done everything but win – his only PGA Tour victory was in a 2016 opposite-field event – and he looks close to putting that to an end.
Finau is known as a bomber, and yes, that reputation is very much deserving, but many do not realize how strong he has become in the more finesse phases of his game. He ranks 24th on Tour in greens in regulation, and 48th in strokes gained: around-the-green. In addition, he has proven himself as a more than capable putter.
The whole package is there with Finau, it just needs to all come together at the same time, and this would be an appropriate place, as he burst onto the world golf scene when he contended at the 2015 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 29
2018 Masters: 10
2018 U.S. Open: 5
2018 British Open: 9
Last Six: 10, 37, 9, 21, 5, MC
2018 Wins: 0
15. Bryson DeChambeau
The 24-year-old Memorial Tournament Champion DeChambeau has shown incredible resiliency over the past two weeks. Playing at the European Tour’s Porsche European Open the week after The Open Championship, the often controversial youngster held a late lead before absolutely melting down over the final five holes to drop out of the top 10 entirely.
An opening-round 75 the following week at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational had him in dead last, but he was able to right the ship from there, going 69-68-67 to improve his score each day and finish in a respectable 30th. Everything that plagued him in Round 1 became a strength over the final three days.
Experience is a concern with DeChambeau, as this will be just his second try at the PGA Championship, but he has shown with a stellar 2018 season that he can compete anywhere, regardless of the strength of field. He certainly is not lacking in confidence.
And don’t forget, DeChambeau is just barely behind Webb Simpson for the 8th spot in the Ryder Cup Standings, with the top 8 after this week automatically making the American team. He would stand a good chance of being a Captain’s pick anyway, but considering his inexperience in team formats and his reputation as something of a lone wolf, it would be much safer for him to make it automatically, rather than depending on Jim Furyk to select him out of a pool that contains some very experienced Ryder Cuppers, such as Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, and Matt Kuchar.
Odds: 80-1
World Rank: 22
2018 Masters: 38
2018 U.S. Open: 25
2018 British Open: 51
Last Six: 30, 13, 51, WD, 9, 25
2018 Wins: 1 (the Memorial Tourn.)
14. Rickie Fowler
It could be argued that a number of players in the PGA Championship field “need” a win this week. Jordan Spieth needs a win. Tiger Woods needs a win. Dustin Johnson needs a win. However, if those guys need a win, then Rickie Fowler NEEDS a win.
The beloved 29-year-old is unquestionably the highest ranking name on the list of best players without a major victory, as he currently stands at 35 major starts without a win. He has come close many times, finishing in the top 5 eight times, but his reputation is going to take a monstrous hit until he pulls through on the biggest stage. He has the world ranking (9th) and the endorsements of an elite golfer, but with just five victories and zero majors in nine full-time PGA Tour seasons, is he really worthy of his lofty status? Winning this week at Bellerive would undoubtedly end that negative chatter.
Fowler has struggled badly to close this year, and right now is risking going a full season without winning an event since 2014, but even in that season, he had two runner-ups, three third place finishes, and 8 results inside the top 10.
This year, he has a single runner-up (The Masters) and just four total top 10s. At last week’s WGC-Bridgestone, Rickie opened with a sizzling 7-under 63, but after an uninspiring final round, he failed to even place inside the top 15. This will be Fowler’s last shot at a major for another 8 months, and in that time he will be hitting the big 3-0. The pressure is on this week.
Odds: 22-1
World Rank: 9
2018 Masters: 2
2018 U.S. Open: 20
2018 British Open: 28
Last Six: 17, 28, 6, 12, 20, 8
2018 Wins: 0
13. Xander Schauffele
It would take an elite, politician-style of a spin job to extract anything positive from Schauffele’s 12-over 68th place (out of 71) effort at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, where every part of his game went missing, but anyone completely discounting his chances at Bellerive would be doing so foolishly.
Schauffele is a bonafide big-game player. We saw it in his 2017 rookie season when he finished T5 at the U.S. Open, and even moreso when he won the Tour Championship.
Recently, the 24-year-old has missed cuts at the Travelers Championship, the Fort Worth Invitational, and a 73rd place finish at the Valero Texas Open, but THE PLAYERS Championship? T2. U.S. Open? T6. Open Championship? T2. When the stakes are big, Xander shows up.
Schauffele also showed impressive mental fortitude at Carnoustie. Playing in the final Sunday pairing with 3-time major winner Jordan Spieth, both players leaked oil all over the latter part of the front nine, but it was Schauffele who found a way to steady his game and keep himself in the tournament. He was the last player to be eliminated from contention before Francesco Molinari officially became the Champion Golfer of the Year.
Schauffele should also be motivated by his position on the periphery of the Ryder Cup standings. If he wants to make that American team, this is a big week.
Odds: 60-1
World Rank: 19
2018 Masters: 50
2018 U.S. Open: 6
2018 British Open: 2
Last Six: 69, 2, 21, MC, 6, MC
2018 Wins: 0
12. Tommy Fleetwood
Perhaps Europe’s answer to prime Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood has never seen a green he could not hit. His pristine iron game was the biggest reason he finished first atop the European Tour’s 2017 Race to Dubai Standings, and why he has been a top-20 machine worldwide over the past two years.
The 27-year-old has yet to notch his first win on U.S. soil, as he cannot quite seem to put four rounds together, but he has been close on some big stages, and if not for Brooks Koepka, we might be talking about Fleetwood as a back-to-back U.S. Open winner.
The suave Brit has a plethora of low rounds on big stages, with examples including a final-round 63 at the U.S. Open, a second round 65 at The Open Championship, and a first round 63 at last week’s WGC-Bridgestone, and once he becomes seasoned enough to avoid that one bad round, if he is not there already, watch out; a breakthrough feels imminent. And even if Fleetwood’s week in St. Louis includes another 64 offset by a 75, at least he has fantastic hair.
Odds: 28-1
World Rank: 11
2018 Masters: 17
2018 U.S. Open: 2
2018 British Open: 12
Last Six: 14, 6, 12, MC, 59, 2
2018 Wins: 1 (Abu Dhabi HSBC Champ.)
11. Patrick Reed
At this time last year, Reed was best-known as a Ryder Cup wizard; a talented player who paradoxically shone brightly on the team stage, despite coming off as standoffish and a quintessential loner. Since teeing up at last year’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow though, Reed has expanded his profile 10-fold, becoming a major player on the major stage.
Reed finished T2 at that PGA Championship, the first time he as much as placed in the top 10 of a major. That close call ended up foreshadowing a tremendous 2018 major season, with four great days at Augusta leading to a green jacket and Masters immortality. He followed up that breakthrough victory by contending deep into Sunday at the U.S. Open, finishing solo-fourth. Those two finishes combined with a respectable T28 at The Open Championship, where he improved his score each of the four days, and he has been the best player of the 2018 major season so far.
Reed has a great deal of length and plays his best around the greens. With Bellerive having large, unique greens, Reed will get plenty of opportunities to show off his short game creativity.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 12
2018 Masters: 1
2018 U.S. Open: 4
2018 British Open: 28
Last Six: 28, 9, 28, 23, MC, 4
2018 Wins: 1 (The Masters)
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