PGA Tour to LIV Golf Probabilities: The Next Wave, Following (PGA) TOUR Championship

Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman Sentry Kapalua
Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman walk off the 18th green after their first round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions on the Plantation Course at Kapalua on Jan 6, 2022 in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii. (Photo by Ben Jared / PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

The curtains come down on the PGA Tour’s 2022 season this Sunday, and as soon NBC cuts to commercial it is expected that LIV Golf will announce the signing of Cameron Smith and six others, all of whom will be headed to Boston for the big Labor Day weekend tournament at the International.

“Yes, we expect to make a major announcement Monday concerning the 48-player field playing here at The International next week,” Steve Brennan, The International’s GM, told NewEngland.Golf’s Tom Gorman in a Zoom interview Friday.

“As you know it’s been a Labor Day weekend tradition that professional golf has visited the Boston area for 17 years. And, next week The International is looking forward to hosting many of the world’s top golfers and we hope New England golf fans will come here to International to enjoy the experience to see a LIV Golf event in-person.”

Jason Day and Justin Rose
Jason Day and Justin Rose on the 13th hole during the first round of The Northern Trust on Aug 23, 2018 at the Ridgewood Course in Ridgewood, NJ. (Photo by Gregory Shamus via Getty Images)

Here’s a look at the probabilities and odds for the next wave of golfers leaving the PGA Tour for LIV Golf.

  • Cameron Smith (-2000, 95.24%)
  • Marc Leishman (-1500, 93.75%)
  • Jason Day (-1300, 92.86%)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (-900,  90%)
  • Si Woo Kim (-800, 88.89%)
  • Cameron Tringale (-500, 83.33%)
  • Anirban Lahiri (-400, 80%)
  • Keegan Bradley (-300, 75%)
  • Harold Varner III (-250, 71.43%)
  • Jon Vegas (-150, 60%)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (-100, 50%)
  • Lucas Glover (+150, 40%)
  • Patton Kizzire (+200, 33.33%)
  • Joaquin Niemann (+250, 28.57%)
  • Emiliano Grillo (+275, 26.67%)
  • JJ Spaun (+300, 25%)
  • Alex Noren (+350, 22.22%)
  • Rickie Fowler (+400, 20%)
  • Gary Woodland (+450, 18.18%)
  • Tony Finau (+475, 17.39%)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+600, 14.29%)
  • Xander Schauffele (+600, 14.29%)
  • Justin Rose (+700, 12.5%)
  • Daniel Berger (+800, 11.11%)
  • Jordan Spieth (+850, 10.53%)
  • Sam Burns (+950, 9.52%)
  • Shane Lowry (+975, 9.3%)

Based on a mix of factors, including public statements, friendships with Tour Mafia (Tiger, Rory, JT), friendships with current LIV players, PGA Tour status, etc.


  1. Just hope more PGA Tour players realize they’ve been had for years. How can they trust the Tour anymore? Every single season they change the rules. And, their new ones show that they changed the latest set of rules to try to maintain  their monopoly.


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