The Wells Fargo Championship tees off at acclaimed Quail Hollow Club on Thursday, the second to last event before the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island’s Ocean track.
The 2020 edition was canceled as part of the coronavirus interruption, and so Max Homa defends his 2019 title. But most eyes will be on two-time Fargo winner Rory McIlroy who seeks to bust out of a lengthy slump that is now in sort of a tailspin.
The four-time major winner, and now world No. 15, is offered at +1600 to take home his third Wells Fargo trophy with Justin Thomas (+900), Jon Rahm (+1100), Bryson DeChambeau (+1400), and Xander Schauffele (+1400) the only players with better odds.
Webb Simpson is also at +1600 and rounds out the top-5 betting favorites in North Carolina.
2021 Wells Fargo Championship
Top-5 Betting Favorites
1. Justin Thomas (+900)
1. Jon Rahm (+1100)
3. Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
4. Xander Schauffele (+1400)
5. Rory McIlory (+1600)
5. Webb Simpson (+1600)
Wells Fargo Bets
Outright
Rory McIlroy (+1600) – The 32-year old missed the cut at the Masters and has been in a terrible funk since the covid break. Some of his detractors are laughing that he’s under some kind of “curse” for mouthing off on a podcast. What we do know is this: he’s been working extra hours with his new swing coach, and so as a horse for the course, getting Rory at +1600 is an absolute steal. We say: take the man who basically owns every tournament scoring record. Even for a small wager.
Tournament Matchups
Max Homa (+105) over Patrick Cantlay (-125) – The defending champion enters in good form off a T6 at last week’s Valspar. He also added a win at the elite-field Genesis earlier this year. In our rankings of players for 2021, Homa is No. 17. The normally consistent Cantlay, meanwhile, arrives amid a mini slump having missed three cuts in his last four starts.
Harold Varner (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood (-125) – The North Carolina native appears at a surprising No. 41 in our 2021 rankings, thanks to a T2 at Hilton Head and three other solid showings (T19 Honda, T21 Bay Hill, and T13 Phoenix). Fleetwood, meanwhile, is ranked 47 on our list as the Englishman has sandwiched two MCs between a T46 in his last three stroke-play starts. Take the home dog!
Joel Dahmen (+100) over Denny McCarthy (-120) – Dahmen enters in, well, Dahmen form: MC-MC-MC-T60-MC-MC-MC-WIN-74. And this is basically how he’s made a living as a PGA Tour golfer. A bunch of junk and then throw in a top finish or two to pay the bills. On a serious note, Dahmen hasn’t played since the Valero (before the Masters) so he’s rested, and posted a runner-up here to Homa in 2019. McCarthy has had a similar 2021 season to Dahmen, although he’s played better recently with a T3 at the Honda and T13 at Hilton Head.
Top-5 Finish
Tony Finau (+350) – Finau enters off a decent performance at the team event in New Orleans (which doesn’t really count) but also posted a top 10 at the Masters. Before that, though, he’d posted an unFinau-like MC-28-MC so we think he follows up that T10 at Augusta with another run of top-5s as has been his track record after a few bad outings.
Top-10 Finish
Francesco Molinari (+600) – Following his loss at the Masters to Tiger Woods in 2019, Molinari went into a protracted slump which was compounded in 2020 with the covid interruption. He returned in 2021, though, in good form with three top-10s during the west coast swing. In his three starts since leaving the Golden State, he’s missed two cuts alongside a solo 52 at the Masters. We think he’s ready to return to his earlier form, particularly with his solid history at Quail Hollow which includes three straight top-25s (T16, T24, T17).
Top-20 Finish
Aaron Wise (+500) – The 24-year old from Oregon was runner-up here in 2018 and then went on to win his maiden title at the Byron Nelson that same year. In 2019 he finished T18 at the Wells Fargo. For the 2020-21 season he’s been hit or miss (missed-cut/low finish or top 20ish). We think he’s about ready for another top 20ish finish.
Odds To Win: Wells Fargo Championship
Quail Hollow Club. Charlotte, NC . May 6-9, 2021
