What would the Official World Golf Rankings look like if, instead of two years of performance data, we used only the current calendar year, January to April? Wouldn’t this be more useful in terms of betting analysis – e.g. who’s hot and who’s not?
Four months of data, with the average player making about eight to nine starts, would be a much better sample size to gauge current form than how one played in the summer of 2019, no?
We think so. And we’ve been using this method for years, relative to power rankings and betting analysis. We also required a minimum of six starts with one-third of those being in fields with a SOF rating above 250.
Using this slice of performance data, would Dustin Johnson still be No. 1? Would Rory McIlroy even be in the top 20?
The answer is no. And no.
DJ falls to No. 13, while McIlroy is 37th.
Yet, at the same time, when we filter OWGR’s data, using only points earned in 2021, we still see all the familiar names, just in different positions which simply exposes recent struggles and highlights current surges.
If you’re a follower of tour golf, you won’t be totally surprised to see Justin Thomas as the world No. 1 in our filtered list. JT gets there mainly through a win at The Players (80 points), along with a solo 3rd at Kapalua (26 points).
Jordan Spieth is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this filtered data as the three-time major winner has been a completely new player (or his old self) this year, and moves from 30 to No. 3. The 27-year old has entered nine events in 2021 and owns a win (38 points) and five additional top 10s, including four top-5s with one of those a T3 at the Masters worth 35 points.
Max Homa is another big mover when querying only 2021 data. The 30-year old jumps from No. 41 to 17, primarily off his big win (68 points) at Riviera but also via two top-10s and two other top-20s.
World No. 10 Brooks Koepka as No. 2 may be somewhat surprising. Yet in just six starts this year, the four-time major winner owns a victory in Phoenix (58 points) and runner-up at the elite-field WGC event (32 points).
The biggest faller is current No. 9 Webb Simpson, who dropped 24 places to No. 33, despite enjoying a solid 2021 campaign (three top-10s, two other top-20s). The reason? Simpson has no real big point hauls with a T6 (13.32 points) at the WGC Concessions event his biggest.
Filtered: 2021 World Top 50
Filtered Rank-Player (OWGR Rank, +/-)
1. Justin Thomas (2, +1)
2. Brooks Koepka (10, +8)
3. Jordan Spieth (30, +27)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (5, +1)
5. Collin Morikawa (6, +1)
6. Tony Finau (12, +6)
7. Billy Horschel (18, +11)
8. Xander Schauffele (4, -4)
9. Hideki Matsuyama (14, +5)
10. Jon Rahm (3, -7)
11. Paul Casey (20, +9)
12. Patrick Reed (7, +5)
13. Dustin Johnson (1, -12)
14. Joaquin Nieman (32, +18)
15. Will Zalatoris (28, +13)
16. Viktor Hovland (15, -1)
17. Max Homa (41, +24)
18. Lee Westwood (22, +4)
19. Scottie Scheffler (21, +2)
20. Tyrrell Hatton (8, -12)
21. Stewart Cink (43, +22)
22. Corey Conners (38, +16)
23. Harris English (23, 0)
24. Justin Rose (39, +15)
25. Daniel Berger (16, -9)
26. Brian Harman (47, +21)
27. Matthew Fitzpatrick (17, -10)
28. Kevin Na (34, -4)
29. Cameron Smith (25, -4)
30. Ryan Palmer (27, -3)
31. Patrick Cantlay (11, -20)
32. Chris Kirk (62, +30)
33. Webb Simpson (9, -24)
34. Rory McIlroy (13, -21)
35 Matt Jones (54, +19)
36. Si Woo Kim (48, +12)
37. Victor Perez (29, -8)
38. Marc Leishman (37, -1)
39. Robert MacIntyre (46, +5)
40. Sergio Garcia (45, +5)
41. Matt Kuchar (49, +8)
42. Emiliano Grillo (78, +36)
43. Harold Varner III (77, +34)
44. Charley Hoffman (71, +27)
45. Branden Grace (88, +43)
46. Tommy Fleetwood (26, -20)
47. Jason Kokrak (35, -12)
48. Sungjae Im (19, -29)
49. Brendan Steele (74, +25)
50. Sam Burns (94, +44)