The second major golf championship of the 2023 season gets underway this week in upstate New York, as the world’s very best meet up at historical Oak Hill Country Club for the 105th edition of the PGA Championship.
A year ago, Justin Thomas pulled off a comeback for the ages to claim his second career Wanamaker Trophy, while the year prior, Phil Mickelson turned back the clock to capture his sixth major, becoming the oldest major champion in history.
Thomas and Mickelson are among a string of Hall-of-Fame types who’ve won the PGA Championship since the turn of the century, joining the likes of Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, among others.
Oak Hill, though, has hosted two PGA Championships this century and produced a pair of winners who’ll require a ticket to gain access to the Hall: Shaun Micheel (2003) and Jason Dufner (2013).
Thus, will this week’s champion be one who’s historic, or a one-time supernova who’s part of history?
Our top 20 is below:
20. Patrick Reed
The 2018 Masters champion enters in sneaky-good form, having posted six consecutive top-20 finishes, highlighted by a T4 at Augusta National… Reed sits inside the top 10 on the LIV Golf circuit’s season-long points standings… The Texan owns four top-20 finishes in his seven most recent PGA Championship starts, including a T2 at the 2017 edition.
Odds: 100-1
Book Rank: T30
PGW Rank: 25th
Last 6: 12, 14, 3, 4, 4, 18
Last 6 Majors: 4, 47, 49, 34, 35, MC
Best at PGA: T2 (2017)
19. Sam Burns
The LSU product is enjoying another superb season with a win and three additional top-10s. Yet, despite five victories in less than three seasons, the world No.14 has struggled badly on the major stage. During this span, Burns has entered eight majors and owns just a single top-25 result. He’s too good to continue with these major duds.
Odds: 50-1
Book Rank: T20
PGW Rank: 18th
Last 6: MC, 15, 29, 1, 6, 35
Last 6 Majors: 29, 42, 27, 20, MC, 76
Best at PGA: T20 (2022)
18. Max Homa
The 32-year-old L.A. native, and world No.6, is enjoying another dream season with two more victories (Silverado, Torrey Pines) and five top-10 finishes. Yet, as phenomenal as Homa’s been over the past few years, he’s been a complete no-show in the majors, with just a single finish better than T40 in 14 career major starts.
Odds: 35-1
Book Rank: T15
PGW Rank: 14th
Last 6: 8, MC, 43, 9, 6, 14
Last 6 Majors: 43, MC, 47, 13, 48, 40
Best at PGA: T13 (2022)
17. Cameron Young
The 26-year-old bomber from New York enters off a pair of terrible finishes (T59, T51) but before that reeled off three top-10s in a four-start span… Young finished with a pair of top-3 finishes at the majors in his rookie season of 2022, including a solo second at St Andrews and a T3 at the PGA. He followed it up with a T7 at this year’s Masters… The 2022 Rookie-of-the-Year seems due for his first tour win.
Odds: 25-1
Book Rank: T7
PGW Rank: 20th
Last 6: 59, 51, 7, 2, 51, 10
Last 6 Majors: 7, 2, MC, 3, MC, MC
Best at PGA: T3 (2022)
16. Joaquin Niemann
The 24-year-old Chilean opened the 2023 season with a pair of top-10 finishes on the Asian Tour. He chased a T16 at the Masters with two consecutive top-10 finishes on the LIV Golf circuit. Currently ranked No.28 in the world, Niemann finished T23 at last year’s PGA Championship.
Odds: 70-1
Book Rank: T23
PGW Rank: 24th
Last 6: 9, 10, 30, 15, 33, 37
Last 6 Majors: 16, 53, 47, 23, 35, 59
Best at PGA: T23 (2022)
15. Viktor Hovland
One of the youngest stars in the field, the 25-year-old Norwegian currently ranks 11th in the OWGR and enters off two poor finishes (T43, T59). Before that, though, he’d reeled off three straight top-10 finishes in three big-time events: T7 Masters, T3 Players, T10 Arnold Palmer… Finished T7 at this year’s Masters.
Odds: 30-1
Book Rank: T12
PGW Rank: 12th
Last 6: 43, 59, 7, 31, 3, 10
Last 6 Majors: 7, 4, MC, 41, 27, 12
Best at PGA: T30 (2021)
14. Talor Gooch
The Oklahoma State product scored back-to-back LIV Golf titles and holds down the No.1 spot on the upstart tour’s season-long points standings… The talented Gooch made news last week when the USGA de-qualified him for next month’s U.S. Open.
Odds: 80-1
Book Rank: T26
PGW Rank: 16th
Last 6: 36, 1, 1, 34, 18, 14
Last 6 Majors: 34, 34, MC, 20, 14, 33
Best at PGA: T20 (2022)
13. Collin Morikawa
The two-time major winner opened 2023 with three top-6 finishes in his first four starts. But since then, the Cal native has posted just a single top-10 and enters off two consecutive poor results: T31 (Heritage) and MC (Fargo)… On the major stage, though, the 26-year-old seems unflappable, with two wins, three other top-5s and two more top-10s in just 13 career starts.
Odds: 30-1
Book Rank: T12
PGW Rank: 13th
Last 6: MC, 31, 10, 28, 13, MC
Last 6 Majors: 10, MC, 5, 55, 5, 1
Best at PGA: Win (2020)
12. Jordan Spieth
The Texan is entering in questionable form due to an injury-related WD at last week’s Byron Nelson… Before the injury, though, the one-time “Golden Child” of golf was in solid form, having posted four top-5s in his seven most recent starts, highlighted by a T4 at the Masters and playoff loss at Hilton Head. The 29-year-old icon, who has twice finished inside the top 3 at the PGA Championship, seeks to become just the sixth player in history to complete the career grand slam.
Odds: 40-1
Book Rank: 19th
PGW Rank: 11th
Last 6: MC, 2, 4, 31, 3, 19
Last 6 Majors: 4, 8, 37, 34, MC, 2
Best at PGA: 2nd (2015)
11. Justin Thomas
The 15-time Tour winner has not landed in the winner’s circle since claiming his second PGA in May 2022, and does not look close to being his old self. The star who reeled off 13 wins in a five-season span (2016-2020) has won just twice in the last 33 months, albeit two biggies (The Players and PGA). The former top-result machine enters amid a season with just a single top-5 finish and only one other top-10 result.
Odds: 40-1
Book Rank: 11th
PGW Rank: 17th
Last 6: 14, 25, MC, 10, 60, 21
Last 6 Majors: MC, 53, 37, 1, 8, 40
Best at PGA: Win (2017, 2022)
10. Tony Finau
The Utah native arrives in New York off a win in Mexico, his fourth victory in 19 tour starts… Beginning in 2018, over a span of 13 major starts, Finau recorded an incredible nine top-10 finishes. Since then, though, he’s gone seven straight majors without a single top-10 result.
Odds: 25-1
Book Rank: T7
PGW Rank: 10th
Last 6: 23, 1, 31, 26, 17, 19
Last 6 Majors: 26, 28, MC, 30, 35, 15
Best at PGA: T4 (2020)
9. Jason Day
The 35-year-old Aussie enters off a win at the Byron Nelson, his first victory of any kind since 2018. Ranked inside the top 20 for the first time in four years, the former world No.1 seems to be fully back after several years of physical and emotional setbacks.
Odds: 25-1
Book Rank: T7
PGW Rank: 19th
Last 6: 1, MC, 39, 5, 19, 10
Last 6 Majors: 39, 55, MC, 44, MC, 38
Best at PGA: Win (2015)
8. Rory McIlroy
The Northern Irishman won the CJ Cup back in the fall, but since the calendar flipped to 2023, the now 34-year-old has not played particularly well. He followed up a missed-cut at the Masters with a no-show at Hilton Head, costing himself $3 million, and then finished T47 at Quail Hollow, a course he usually owns… In six stroke-play starts on the year, McIlroy has more missed-cuts (2) than top-10s (1).
Odds: 14-1
Book Rank: 3rd
PGW Rank: 7th
Last 6: 47, MC, 3, MC, 2, 29
Last 6 Majors: MC, 3, 5, 8, 2, 46
Best at PGA: Win (2012, 2014)
7. Patrick Cantlay
The world No.4 has not been particularly stellar in majors, with just three top-10s in 21 starts… On the season, the 31-year-old UCLA product has only two results outside the top-25, with four top-4 finishes.
Odds: 18-1
Book Rank: T4
PGW Rank: 6th
Last 6: 21, 3, 14, 9, 19, 4
Last 6 Majors: 14, 8, 14, MC, 39, MC
Best at PGA: T3 (2019)
6. Xander Schauffele
The reigning Olympic gold medalist enters on a heater, highlighted by four straight top-10s including three top-5s… While he has yet to win a major, Schauffele has consistently finished well in the biggest events, with ten top-10s in 23 major starts. Xander, Cantlay and Finau are the best players in the world without a major.
Odds: 18-1
Book Rank: T4
PGW Rank: 5th
Last 6: 2, 4, 10, 5, 19, 39
Last 6 Majors: 10, 15, 14, 13, MC, 26
Best at PGA: T10 (2020)
5. Dustin Johnson
Fully healed from an injury which hampered his game earlier in the season. Now (laughably) ranked 82nd in the world, DJ enters off an overtime win in Tulsa and a solo 10th in Australia. The longtime world No.1 and two-time major winner could become just the 13th player in history to win three of the four legs of the grand slam.
Odds: 30-1
Book Rank: T12
PGW Rank: 8th
Last 6: 1, 25, 10, 48, 7, 13
Last 6 Majors: 48, 6, 24, MC, 12, 8
Best at PGA: 2nd (2019, 2020)
4. Cameron Smith
The 27-year-old Aussie, and greatest putter on the planet, enters in very good form (T2 Tulsa, T6 Singapore and T3 Australia). The reigning British Open champion has not fared too well at the PGA, though: a T13 (2022) and T25 (2015) are his only top-40 finishes in this event.
Odds: 25-1
Book Rank: T7
PGW Rank: 4th
Last 6: 2, 7, 4, 34, 29, 26
Last 6 Majors: 34, 1, MC, 13, 3, 33
Best at PGA: T13 (2022)
3. Scottie Scheffler
The world No. 2 enters in tip-top form, with thirteen consecutive top-12 finishes, highlighted by two victories, five other top-5s and three additional top-10s!… In his last eight major starts, the Texan owns six top-10 finishes, including a maiden win at last season’s Masters.
Odds: 8-1
Book Rank: T1
PGW Rank: 2nd
Last 6: 5, 11, 10, 4, 1, 4
Last 6 Majors: 10, 21, 2, MC, 1, 8
Best at PGA: T4 (2020)
2. Brooks Koepka
The Florida State product does not need help getting himself hyped for majors, as he’s consistently excelled on the biggest stages. In a three-season blitzkrieg (2017-2019), Koepka won four times while finishing runner-up twice more. Starting in 2020, though, the two-time PGA winner has battled through a multitude of injuries which limited his play and hampered his once-dominant style. Now injury free, and in top form, Koepka returned to the major stage in April and finished T2 at the Masters. In his last five starts, Koepka owns four top-10s (1, 2, 3, 6), including three top-3s.
Odds: 18-1
Book Rank: T4
PGW Rank: 3rd
Last 6: 6, 3, 19, 2, 1, 29
Last 6 Majors: 2, MC, 55, 55, MC, 6
Best at PGA: Win (2018, 2019)
1. Jon Rahm
In terms of who’s playing the best among the best, it’s hands-down Rahm, who’s won six times (and two additional top-3s) in his 13 most recent starts, highlighted by a victory at the 2023 Masters. Rahm owns two top-10 finishes (T4, T8) in six career PGA Championship starts.
Odds: 8-1
Book Rank: T1
PGW Rank: 1st
Last 6: 2, 15, 1, 31, 39, 1
Last 6 Majors: 1, 34, 12, 48, 27, 3
Best at PGA: T4 (2018)
Bonus: Phil Mickelson
The 52-year-old superstar recorded his sixth major victory at the 2021 PGA Championship… Lefty, whose main priority these days is growing his LIV Golf brand and competing in majors, enters off a couple of poor results on the breakaway tour alongside a spectacular runner-up finish at the Masters. Phil cannot be counted out. Anywhere.
Odds: 150-1
Book Rank: T40
PGW Rank: 45th
Last 6: 45, 15, 16, 2, 41, 32
Last 6 Majors: 2, MC, MC, MC, 62, 1
Best at PGA: Win (2005, 2021)