A memorable 2022 PGA Tour major season comes to an end this weekend, as the birthplace of golf plays host to the 150th Open Championship. Nearly all the best in the world will be at famed St. Andrews in Scotland, but only one can take the coveted Claret Jug.
Two of this year’s three major champions have been first-timers; will it become three of four?
Our top 30 for The Open Championship are as follows:
20. Robert MacIntyre
The 25-year-old will have the crowd on his side as he attempts to become the first Scot to win The Open in Scotland since James Braid took the 1910 title at St. Andrews. MacIntyre has already proved himself legitimate in this event, having finished in the top 10 the past two Opens, the only two he has played in. He has also placed in the top 25 of the last two Masters Tournaments. He recently dropped out of the world’s top 100, but anyone who has followed him should be confident that the dip is very temporary.
Odds: 100-1
Odds Rank: T28
OWGR Rank: 105th
Best Open: T6 (2019)
2022 Majors: DNQ, 77, DNQ
Last Six: MC, 13, MC, MC, 77, 36
19. Dustin Johnson
There have been few opportunities to buy low on DJ the past decade, but this week appears to be one of those rare occasions, as arguably the highest-profile player to defect to the LIV Tour is in the midst of a thoroughly underwhelming 2022 by his standards. Four of Johnson’s 21 career top-10s in majors have come at The Open, including a T8 at last year’s edition, where he had three rounds of 68 or better. Unless the Tour suddenly changes their position on LIV players, this week will be his last chance to add a win to his 2022 season. He has at least one victory in each of his previous 14 full-time seasons on Tour and should be extra motivated to keep that excellence going.
Odds: 40-1
Odds Rank: T14
OWGR Rank: 18th
Best Open: T2 (2011)
2022 Majors: 24, MC, 12
Last Six: 4, 24, 8, MC, 59, MC
18. Tommy Fleetwood
The suave Brit makes himself difficult to bet on because he seems to have that round of 76 ready to come out of his bag and bite him at a moments notice, but he has played well in the major circuit this year, chasing a T14 at The Masters with a T5 at the PGA Championship, and he was the solo runner-up at the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. A 67-67 weekend at Renaissance has Fleetwood coming into The Open off a T4. Many would be surprised to learn that he has the Tour’s tenth-best scoring average, and hasn’t been too shabby in Europe either. We don’t doubt his ability to get into contention, but if he does, he will need to do better staying composed through the 72nd hole.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 13th
OWGR Rank: 35th
Best Open: 2nd (2011)
2022 Majors: MC, 5, 14
Last Six: 4, 46, MC, 10, 35, 5
17. Brooks Koepka
Koepka’s reputation as a major championship wizard is starting to fade as he has gone a shocking CUT-T55-55 in this year’s major season. He also will have the pressure of being one of the LIV defects, which could make things awkward if he allows them to be. Still, he is a big hitter who has unequivocally proved that he knows how to play on this stage. None of his four major championship victories have been at The Open, but he has had a number of close calls, with top-10s in four of his last five attempts. He should also be extra motivated to play well and get himself some long-term exemptions, because playing on the LIV limits those chances, not that he’s not exempt for most of the near future anyway.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: T17
OWGR Rank: 20th
Best Open: T4 (2019)
2022 Majors: 55, 55, MC
Last Six: 20, 55, 55, MC, 5, 12
16. Louis Oosthuizen
There is no sugarcoating it: Oosty has been awful over the past four months, and his performances in the other majors this season was terrible. Still, he cannot be forgotten this week. He held the lead after each of the first three rounds at Royal St. George’s before finishing T3, one of three top-3 finishes in majors last season. He reached the three-man playoff the last time The Open was held at St. Andrews, and the time before that he won by seven strokes, his only career major title. Perhaps his T8 at last month’s BMW International Open, a DP World Tour event, is a sign that he’s coming back around and is healthy enough to give 100% in a tournament he has played consistently well in, at a venue he has dominated.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: T17
OWGR Rank: 24th
Best Open: 1st (2010)
2022 Majors: MC, 60, WD
Last Six: 5, 8, MC, 10, 60, WD
15. Sam Burns
It has been some breakout season for the former LSU star, as Burns has notched three victories in the 2022 PGA Tour season, in addition to a runner-up and four other top-10 finishes. Based on that alone, he should be much higher on this list, but two things holding him back: he still has not had the experience of contending for four days in a major, and his season has recent hit the skids a little, with a surprising missed-cut at The Travelers Championship and a T66 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He’s currently second in the FedExCup standings.
Odds: 40-1
Odds Rank: T14
OWGR Rank: 11th
Best Open: T76 (2021)
2022 Majors: 27, 20, MC
Last Six: 66, MC, 27, 4, 1, 20
14. Sungjae Im
It would be easy to get discouraged by the back-to-back missed cuts, but the 24-year-old from South Korea is a big-time performer who’s triumph in a major feels inevitable. His game possesses very little in the way of weaknesses, and despite his youth, he has already shown to be the kind of player that you at least know isn’t going to fade on Sundays. Im has four top-25 finishes in majors over the past three seasons.
Odds: 100-1
Odds Rank: T28
OWGR Rank: 23rd
Best Open: MC (2019)
2022 Majors: MC, DNP, 8
Last Six: MC, MC, 10, 15, 21, 8
13. Cameron Smith
Despite two victories on the season, one a record-setting performance at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the other a PLAYERS triumph, the talented Aussie feels like an ultimate wild card. He has an uncanny ability to just explode into contention at any time, but also possesses the ability to take himself out of the mix at any time. Can he put four rounds together at St. Andrews? He has yet to be remotely competitive at The Open, with a T20 in 2019 being his best result. Four of his five major top-10s have been at The Masters.
Odds: 22-1
Odds Rank: T8
OWGR Rank: 6th
Best Open: T20 (2019)
2022 Majors: MC, DNP, 8
Last Six: 10, MC, 48, 13, 13, MC
12. Justin Thomas
A major championship resume that was bordering on mildly disappointing flipped dramatically two months ago, when the 15-time Tour winner took his second career major in a brilliant 7-stroke comeback effort at the PGA Championship. Since the start of May, Thomas could not be more hit-or-miss, notching that aforementioned victory, in addition to a solo-third and a T5, but also with a T37 at the U.S. Open last month, and two missed cuts, including at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open when he shot a Friday 77. Ranking fourth on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, Thomas is a magician at finding birdies where birdies should not be found, but take note that this has not been a good major for him. A T11 in 2019, where he still finished 12 strokes behind winner Shane Lowry, is his only Open result of better than T40.
Odds: 22-1
Odds Rank: T8
OWGR Rank: 7th
Best Open: T11 (2019)
2022 Majors: 37, 1, 8
Last Six: MC, 37, 3, MC, 1, 5
11. Hideki Matsuyama
When we last saw Japan’s best golfer on the major stage, he was making a furious run up the Sunday leaderboard at the U.S. Open. Had he not run out of holes, he might have had his second major championship victory of the past two seasons. He ended up finishing solo-fourth at Brookline, and gave the leaders a scare with his Sunday 65. On the season, Matusyama has two wins and a T3, and has continued to assert himself as one of the Tour’s elite ball-strikers. He has made himself unable to be ignored in any event, although with him it seems to always be “if his putts fall…”. He currently ranks third on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: T17
OWGR Rank: 14th
Best Open: T6 (2013)
2022 Majors: 4, 60, 14
Last Six: MC, 4, DQ, 60, 3, 14
10. Jon Rahm
We have yet to see peak Rahm in 2022, but the world No. 3 remains one of the world’s best, currently leading the Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and greens in regulation. The 27-year-old Spaniard has won seven tournaments apiece in both the U.S. and Europe and finished in the top 8 of all four 2021 majors, including a T3 where he shot a 66 on Sunday. A T55 at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open was disappointing, but he still arrives at St. Andrews with four top-12 results in his last seven starts.
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: T2
OWGR Rank: 3rd
Best Open: T3 (2021)
2022 Majors: 12, 48, 27
Last Six: 55, 12, 10, 48, 1, 27
9. Jordan Spieth
With a win and two runner-ups, the 13-time Tour winner is having a fine season, and currently sits 12th in both the world rankings and FedExCup standings. However, he has not been particularly consistent round-to-round, which was well-illustrated at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, where he was just one stroke off the lead mid-way through the back nine, before going double-bogey, bogey on 14-15 which led to a disappointing T10. This has been a good major for Spieth though, as he showed great resilience in outdueling Matt Kuchar to win the 2017 edition at Royal Birkdale, one of three career major victories. He also finished solo-second to Collin Morikawa a year ago, held the 54-hole co-lead at Carnoustie in 2018 (finished T9), and was just one stroke short of the three-man playoff at St. Andrews in 2015. His putting will need to be much, much better than it has been for most of the season if he wants to contend here again.
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: T2
OWGR Rank: 12th
Best Open: 1st (2017)
2022 Majors: 37, 34, MC
Last Six: 10, MC, 37, 18, 7, 34
8. Shane Lowry
There probably isn’t anything more that needs to be said about the affable Irishman’s Open Championship competency than to point out how he absolutely curb-stomped the field two Opens ago, winning at Royal Portrush by six strokes. He has yet to land in the major winner’s circle again, but he has continued to be relevant, with two top-5s among five top-25s in the three Tour seasons since. More recently, he notched a runner-up finish and two third-places on the PGA Tour between February and April. He owns the Tour’s sixth-best scoring average and ranks tenth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Whatever his odds land at, chances are, they will be higher than they should be.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 10th
OWGR Rank: 22nd
Best Open: 1st (2019)
2022 Majors: MC, 23, 3
Last Six: 9, MC, 10, 32, 23, 3
7. Will Zalatoris
The wiry 25-year-old has already done everything in his Tour career… except win. Zalatoris has unquestionably been at his best in major championships, with six top-10s in eight major starts as a professional, including runner-ups at both the PGA Championship, where he lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas, and the U.S. Open, where he finished just a stroke behind Matt Fitzpatrick. At this point, it is not a matter of if he wins a major, it’s a matter of when and how many. Not that lack of experience has been anything resembling an issue for him, but this is more or less his Open debut, as he withdrew with an injury after the first round, one of which he shot under par. He was a surprise missed cut at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, but with his record, it is really hard to use that against him much. If anything, it just gave him more time to prepare for St. Andrews.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: T6
OWGR Rank: 13th
Best Open: WD (2021)
2022 Majors: 2, 2, 6
Last Six: MC, 2, 5, MC, 2, MC
6. Collin Morikawa
So, what to make of the defending champ this week? Well, he’s 1-for-1 at The Open, so that’s positive. Morikawa has been all over the place this season, largely due to an inconsistent short game, but he has been playing his best in the big events, finishing fifth at both The Masters and the U.S. Open. When his ball striking is on, there’s arguably nobody better, and he obviously has the temperament to excel on the major stage that in just 11 major starts, he has two victories and four additional top-10s.
Odds: 28-1
Odds Rank: T11
OWGR Rank: 8th
Best Open: 1st (2021)
2022 Majors: 5, 55, 5
Last Six: MC, 5, MC, 40, 55, 26
5. Matt Fitzpatrick
The 27-year-old Brit got himself off the PGA Tour and major championship schnide when he prevailed by a stroke at last month’s U.S. Open. The victory at Brookline highlighted an excellent season for Fitzpatrick, who has recorded nine top-10s in 16 starts, including in five of his last six. He also finished T14 at The Masters, and T5 at the PGA Championship. His start at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open was his first since that U.S. Open win, and he continued to shine, finishing T6 in a very strong field. The man with the Tour’s second-best scoring average ranks inside the top 10 in four of the six strokes gained categories, and really there is nothing that should indicate that a letdown is imminent.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: T6
OWGR Rank: 10th
Best Open: T20 (2019)
2022 Majors: 1, 5, 14
Last Six: 6, 1, 10, MC, 5, 2
4. Scottie Scheffler
The landslide World No. 1 and overwhelming leader in the FedExCup Standings arrives at St. Andrews this week in the midst of a four-win season, highlighted by an April triumph at The Masters. In addition, Scheffler has three runner-ups on the season, including at last month’s U.S. Open, where he led midway through Sunday, but finished a stroke behind Matt Fitzpatrick. He did miss the cut in Scotland last week, but very little negative can be said about his chances; his best has just been that much better than everyone else’s best this season. He finished T8 last year at Royal St. George’s in his Open Championship debut. He currently leads the Tour in greens in regulation.
Odds: 18-1
Odds Rank: 5th
OWGR Rank: 1st
Best Open: T8 (2021)
2022 Majors: 2, MC, 1
Last Six: MC, 13, 2, 18, 2, MC
3. Xander Schauffele
All eyes are on the X-Man this week, as Schauffele has suddenly become the hottest man in golf. After a two-plus year winless drought on Tour, the 28-year-old has exploded since winning the Zurich Classic while teamed up with Patrick Cantlay, which led to four consecutive top-20s before winning each of his last two starts: the Travelers Championship, and last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, the latter of which is especially relevant to Open golf. However, majors are a different monster, and while Schauffele has contended frequently in limited major starts (six top-5s among nine top-10s over the past six seasons), it has been one excruciatingly close call after another. One of those close calls happened at the 2018 Open Championship, where he held the 54-hole co-lead before a difficult Sunday allowed him to be passed by Francesco Molinari. The pressure should be considerable given his recent form, and he has made numerous references to being tired. However, those who question whether he can close the deal on the biggest stages should be reminded that he has an Olympic gold medal in his possession.
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: T2
OWGR Rank: 5th
Best Open: T2 (2018)
2022 Majors: 2, MC, 1
Last Six: 1, 1, 14, 18, 13, 5
2. Patrick Cantlay
The world No. 4 arrives at St. Andrews as the highest-ranked player in the world without a major championship victory. The reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year is currently three wins short of his 2021 total (four) and that one win was a team event with another top-5 golfer in Xander Schauffele, but over the past three months, Cantlay has emphatically broken out of the slump he was mired in the two months prior. For the season, he has four top-3 finishes among eight top-10s and has finished T14 or better in six of his last seven starts, including a T4 at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. He has made just three Open starts in his career, finishing T12 in 2018 before going T41-CUT in his last two. We cannot shake the feeling that this is his week, however. He has been excellent in every metric as of late.
Odds: 28-1
Odds Rank: T11
OWGR Rank: 4th
Best Open: T12 (2018)
2022 Majors: 14, MC, 39
Last Six: 4, 13, 14, 3, MC, 2
1. Rory McIlroy
Considering the ball-striking brilliance the 21-time Tour winner – one more than Greg Norman – has flashed over the course of his career, it is shocking that he has not won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship, which happened the month after he won The Open by two strokes at Royal Liverpool. He has been far from a no-show on the major stage though, averaging more than two major top-10s per season since 2014. The Tour leader in scoring average, Rory has finished in the top 8 of all three majors played this season, and has not finished outside the top 20 in any of his last eight Tour starts. He may need to learn to close again, but he is difficult to doubt when his putts are dropping. A stellar season has him up to No. 2 in the world rankings. McIlroy missed the 2015 Open at St. Andrews with an injury, but finished T3 at the 2010 Open at that venue at the age of 21, and that was WITH a second-round 80 on his card.
Odds: 10-1
Odds Rank: 1st
OWGR Rank: 2nd
Best Open: 1st (2014)
2022 Majors: 5, 8, 2
Last Six: 19, 5, 1, 18, 8, 5
Next Five
21. Max Homa: Still awaiting his first major in serious contention, but he continues to shine on Tour, winning twice in the 2022 season and notching two victories and an absurd 12 top-25s in 19 starts.
22. Seamus Power: The Irishman remains relatively low-profile, but if he keeps playing majors the way he has this season (T27-T9-T12) that will not be the case much longer.
23. Marc Leishman: The Aussie has three finishes inside the top 6 at The Open since 2014 and reached the three-man playoff the last time this major was held at St. Andrews.
24. Tiger Woods: It can’t be disputed that what we have seen in 2022 is nothing resembling his former self. Still, how comfortable are you betting against the 15-time major champion? He should be well rested after sitting out the U.S. Open.
25. Viktor Hovland: The world No. 9 has been slumping since a T9 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship in March but is way too talented to stay down long. The 24-year-old former amateur superstar from Norway was T12 a year ago in his Open debut.
Bets
Outright: Patrick Cantlay (+2800)
Top-5: Will Zalatoris (+475)
Top-10: Hideki Matsuyama (+280)
Sleeper: Sungjae Im (+8000)
Deep Sleeper: Victor Perez (+15000)
Five More: Tyrrell Hatton, Joaquin Niemann, Joohyung Kim, Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose
