After a one-year absence, TPC Boston makes its return to the FedExCup Playoff stage. This time, though, as the host of The Northern Trust, which will be contested, for the first time in its 53-year history, outside the NY/NJ metro area as part of its new course rotation schedule.
The field this week at the venerable Massachusetts track is absolutely stacked, and features the entire top-20 set in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Making this week’s wagering even more difficult, six of those top-20 ranked names are also former winners at TPC Boston, including world No. 2 Justin Thomas (2017), No. 3 Rory McIlroy (2016, 2012), No. 6 Webb Simpson (2011), No. 8 Bryson DeChambeau (2018), No. 11 Adam Scott (2003), and No. 16 Tiger Woods (2006).
With the table (somewhat) set, here are four prop bets to consider for The Northern Trust. (As always, this content is for research purposes only. Please bet responsibly. See last week’s results.)
1. Hideki Matsuyama
Top Asian Player
The former world No. 2 sits in 18th place in the FedExCup standings so he’s not totally desperate for a high finish, but neither is his chief competitor Sungjae Im, who stands in sixth-place.
Matsuyama will enter Boston in good form, off four top-25 finishes in his last five starts, including the PGA Championship, and the WGC event in Memphis. More importantly, though, the Japanese star’s results in Boston have been terrific, highlighted by a top-5 finish in his most recent appearance (2018), alongside three other top-25s (T23, T15, T25).
As for Im: He enters off a backdoor top 10 (T9) in Greensboro, but prior to that result, the young Korean had been struggling badly – posting six of seven finishes outside the top 50, including three missed-cuts. The 22-year old has never teed it up in Boston.
Bet: Hideki Matsuyama, Top Asian
Potential Return: $300
Net Return: $200
2. Patrick Reed
Top Georgia Bulldog
Reed, the Northern Trust’s defending champion, is enjoying another fantastic season, highlighted by a big WGC win in Mexico – the eighth PGA Tour title of his career. The 30-year old Texan may not have lasted very long at the University of Georgia (eventually transferring to Augusta State), but we think the enigmatic star will be the last man standing among the former Bulldogs in Boston.
Reed won last year’s title at Liberty National so he doesn’t get the home field advantage this week but his track record in Boston is still very impressive, highlighted by three top-6s in his last four starts.
Reed’s primary competition in this group would appear to be Kevin Kisner, who enters off a T3 in Greensboro. Kisner is one of our favorites in these types of bets, but even in good form with favorable odds (+500), and a decent track record in Boston (T24, T53, T46, T12), it’s just too hard to go against Reed here.
Ranked sixth in the FedExCup, and No. 8 in the world, Reed appears well positioned to win his first career FedExCup. A strong showing in Boston would only boost his odds.
Bet: Patrick Reed, Top Georgia Player
Potential Return: $350
Net Return: $250
3. Richy Werenski
Top 20 Finish
The Georgia Tech alum made headlines earlier this summer for his choice of wristband. Naturally, in his very next start following the faux controversy, Werenski claimed his maiden PGA Tour title at the Barracuda.
He missed the cut at the PGA Championship – his first miss since the restart, but the Massachusetts native will enter his home-state event off a win, T3, and top-25 in his five most recent starts.
Under-the-radar good form, coupled with favorable odds (+750), makes Werenski our sleeper pick of the week.
Bet: Richy Werenski, Top 20
Potential Return: $850
Net Return: $750
4. Two Strokes
Winning Margin in Boston
While this is the Northern Trust and not the Dell Technologies Championship, the event is being contested as TPC Boston, so we’re going to use the historical data of the tournament contested on the host course.
So if we go back to the 2013 edition of the then Deutsche Bank Championship, where Henrik Stenson edged Steve Stricker by two strokes, the winning margin in Boston has been two strokes in four of the six contests (2013-2018). In the other two: It was a one-shot win for Rickie Fowler (over Stenson) in 2015, and a three-stroke victory for Justin Thomas (over Jordan Spieth) in 2017. The average of these two winning margins is… two strokes on the dot.
Margin Math in Boston:
2018 – 2 (Bryson DeChambeau)
2017 – 3 (Justin Thomas)
2016 – 2 (Rory McIlroy)
2015 – 1 (Rickie Fowler)
2014 – 2 (Chris Kirk)
2013 – 2 (Henrik Stenson)
Sorted: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3
Mean/Avg – 2
Median – 2
Range – 2
Mode – 2 (4 times)
Largest – 3
Smallest – 1
Bet: 2 Strokes, Winning Margin
Potential Return: $450
Net Return: $350
Odds used in this article came from DraftKings Sportsbook.