Just one week short of the 2022 Masters Tournament – the first major of the PGA Tour season, much of those hoping to make that field, or hoping to play well in that field, are on hand this week at TPC San Antonio, the host site of the Valero Texas Open, an event started 100 years ago in 1922.
Fortunately for the field, Scottie Scheffler is taking the week off from golf domination, but the field is still strong, including the inclusion of last year’s champion, Jordan Spieth, who snapped a long winless streak in the process. Do we like Speith to go back-to-back? We saw someone pull off that feat at the Valspar Championship just two weeks ago. Sometimes these things become trends.
15. Beau Hossler
A superstar amatuer at the University of Texas, Hossler seems to be close to getting his game together as a pro, with a solo-third at February’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am among his three top 20s in his last six starts. His results at the Oaks Course have not been extraordinary, but he did shoot four rounds of par or better in 2019 and currently ranks eighth on Tour in strokes gained: putting. He would be a great story if he is able to play his way into next week’s Masters field.
Odds: 125-1
Odds Rank: 49th
World Rank: 236th
Last Six: MC, 20, 16, 48, MC, 3
Best at the Valero: 36th (2019)
14. Keegan Bradley
The four-time Tour winner was phenomenal in the recent Florida swing, chasing a T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a solo-fifth at THE PLAYERS Championship. The 35-year-old has one top 10 in five Valero starts, finishing T9 in 2011, but did close strongly a year ago in a T23 finish. Bradley has been playing some of his best iron play this season, ranking 12th in strokes gained: tee-to-green which meshes well with his ranking of 14th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Putting is the only one of the strokes gained categories where he ranks lower than 68th.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 7th
World Rank: 69th
Last Six: MC, 20, 16, 48, MC, 3
Best at the Valero: 9th (2011)
13. Si Woo Kim
The three-time Tour champion has just one top-10 in (although he does have three T11s somehow), but has been much more consistent than usual in 2022, and is currently 37th in the FedExCup standings. Two Valero Texas Opens ago, Kim looked like he was playing a different game from the rest of the field when he opened up with a pair of 66s, before a pedestrian weekend dropped him to fourth. In his last 16 TPC San Antonio rounds, he has just two over par (one 73 and one 74). Last year he combined two 72s with two 70s.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 7th
World Rank: 54th
Last Six: 18, 26, 73, 26, 11, 11
Best at the Valero: 4th (2019)
12. Adam Hadwin
The short-hitting Canadian has been consistently good the best few months, and arrives in San Antonio off back-to-back top 10s, finishing T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship followed by a T7 at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago, the latter being an event he opened with a field-low 64. Hadwin ranks 36th or better in five of the six strokes gained fields and is 16th in greens in regulation. He was T23 in this event a year ago, with three rounds under par.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 7th
World Rank: 105th
Last Six: 7, 9, MC, 26, 16, MC
Best at the Valero: 23rd (2021)
11. Lucas Glover
Aside from a T5 at January’s Sony Open in Hawaii, it has not been Glover’s best Tour season. However, San Antonio is a place he has shown some proficiency. The 42-year-old followed a T14 two Valeros ago with a solo-fourth last year, closing with a 6-under 66. His short game has been a disaster in 2022, which should not surprise anyone, but he has been procise: he ranks 20th on Tour in driving accuracy and 4th in greens in regulation. The greens at the Oaks course have not been a huge deal for him so far.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: 16th
World Rank: 101st
Last Six: MC, 74, 30, 37, MC, 33
Best at the Valero: 4th (2021)
10. Anirban Lahiri
When the 34-year-old native of India contended down to the wire and netted a $2.18 million runner-up check at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago, it felt like the first time in a while Lahiri was in the mix anywhere, finishing no better than T40 in any of his 12 season starts prior. Those who follow the Valero would tell you that it has not been TOO long, however. He was among just a handful of players to shoot in the 60s in at least three rounds at last year’s event, finishing in solo-fifth. He had some very, very bad rounds at the Oaks Course in his first two attempts, but was under-par all four days in that edition.
Odds: 100-1
Odds Rank: 34th
World Rank: 89th
Last Six: 2, 74, MC, MC, MC, 46
Best at the Valero: 5th (2021)
9. Bryson DeChambeau
After two months of rehabilitating a wrist injury, the world No. 14 was finally back in a field last week, going 0-2-1 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, which should be considered promising given that DeChambeau does not have a stellar match play record as a professional, and he reached the 18th hole in both of his losses. Now the 8-time Tour winner heads back to stroke play, and it should be important to him that he feels 100% healthy before The Masters. None of those eight wins were in San Antonio though. Heck, none of his 97 career made cuts even happened here. He missed the weekend in both his previous attempts, with no under-par rounds.
Odds: 28-1
Odds Rank: 6th
World Rank: 14th
Last Six: 58, MC, 25, 14, 11, 2
Best at the Valero: MC (2017, 2016)
8. Abraham Ancer
Coming off a breakthrough 2021 season that culminated with a victory (the first of his career) at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, his best finish among nine top-10s, the 31-year-old Mexican had been a rather large disappointment in 2022, failing to finish better than T33 in any 2022 calendar year event. Fortunately for Ancer though, he was able to emerge back into relevancy at last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match-Play. He went 2-0-1 in a strong group, highlighted by a 3&1 victory over match-play extraordinaire Bubba Watson. Even more impressively, he then went on to absolutely throttle then-world No. 2 Collin Morikawa 7&6 in the round of 16 before falling to Corey Conners in the quarterfinals. Match play or not, Ancer has shown the ability to stay hot over long periods, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if last week kick-starts his season. His T23 a year ago was his best result in four Valero tries.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: 5th
World Rank: 16th
Last Six: 5, MC, 33, 39, 43, 8
Best at the Valero: 23rd (2021)
7. Charley Hoffman
Now 45 years of age; advanced even in golf years, Charley Hoffman has just one top 25 finish in 11 starts this year, a T22 at the season-opening Fortinet Championship in September. In his last six starts, he has three missed cuts, a WD, and finishes of solo-67th and solo-71st? So, why is he even getting a mention here? The world No. 108 has not been playing his best golf as of late, but he practically owns TPC San Antonio. He played so well in the final three days of last year’s edition that he finished solo-second despite opening with a 3-over 75. He also took solo-second in the Valero before that and was the winner in 2016. He was also runner-up in 2011, T3 in 2013, and FOUR other finishes of T13 or better. Yeah, he ranks 191st on Tour in scoring average, but those results cannot be argued.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: 21st
World Rank: 108th
Last Six: MC, MC, 71, 67, MC, 28
Best at the Valero: Win (2016)
6. Maverick McNealy
At last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where he was the lowest-ranked player in the field, McNealy beat world No. 20 Joaquin Niemann, who had won February’s stacked Genesis Invitational 8 & 6. There are other positive things about his recent play as well, including 12 made cuts in 13 starts and a runner-up at September’s Fortinet Championship, but one thing that cannot be overstressed: McNealy beat Joaquin Niemann 8 & 6 in the group stage of last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. His confidence should be up as he travels to the Oaks Course looking for his first career title in a year where first-time winners have been all the rage. He is very arguably the best player in the field without one.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 7th
World Rank: 70th
Last Six: 17, 46, 73, 7, 33, 30
Best at the Valero: Debut
5. Corey Conners
Coming off a season where he posted eight top 10s and contended in several majors, it was surprising that the 2019 Valero Open Championship had not recorded a top-10 in 2022. That changed last week, however, when he breezed through the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, taking match play wizard Kevin Kisner down to the wire in the semifinals, and then knocking off heavyweight Dustin Johnson 3&1 in the 3rd Place Match. That result should give the 30-year-old Canadian who ranks third on Tour in greens in regulation some confidence heading into the major season. A T14 a year ago isn’t so bad either.
Odds: 18-1
Odds Rank: 4th
World Rank: 32nd
Last Six: 3, 26, 11, MC, 38, MC
Best at the Valero: Win (2019)
4. Chris Kirk
Kirk understandably faded in the second-round being a part of the “bad wave” at THE PLAYERS Championship, his most recent start, but he had been excellent in his previous three outings going T14-T7-T5. He ranks a surprising 10th on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 15th in strokes gained: total, form which has bode him well in the past at TPC San Antonio as a T6 last year was one of three top-10s at the Valero in seven tries.
Odds: 33-1
Odds Rank: 7th
World Rank: 85th
Last Six: MC, 5, 7, 14, MC, MC
Best at the Valero: 6th (2021)
3. Hideki Matsuyama
All eyes will be on the world No. 12 after this week, as Matsuyama will arrive at The Masters as a defending major champion for the first time. But, what about for this week? Hideki has two wins on the Tour season, two other top-10s, and is fourth in the FedExCup standings. He has played the Valero just once, though, finishing T30 after opening with a 67 at last year’s event. Who knows where his mind will be, but contending this week would surprise absolutely no one.
Odds: 16-1
Odds Rank: 3rd
World Rank: 12th
Last Six: 20, 39, 8, 30, 1, 13
Best at the Valero: 30th (2021)
2. Jordan Spieth
Texas tournament? Check. Jordan Spieth? Check. The 12-time PGA Tour winner ended a four-year winless streak at TPC San Antonio a year ago that had felt like 400 years when he emerged from a 54-hole tie with Matt Wallace. He has no additional wins since, but at 41st in the FedExCup standings, he has at least been consistently playing the weekend and he finished solo-second at February’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. He also finished second at the 2015 Valero to Jimmy Walker, back when Jimmy Walker was Jimmy Walker, and is always a good bet in the Lone Star State.
Odds: 14-1
Odds Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 17th
Last Six: 35, MC, 26, 60, 2, MC
Best at the Valero: Win (2021)
1. Rory McIlroy
The world No. 9 is the highest-ranked player in the Valero Texas Open field this year. That alone is enough to have considerable faith here, but some would argue, and justifiably so, that McIroy’s mind might not be 100% on Texas, given that the following week he makes his eighth attempt at becoming the PGA Tour’s sixth-ever to win the Grand Slam. He has been solid in the 2022 season though, winning the CJ CUP @ Summit in October, and prior to a T33 finish two weeks ago at THE PLAYERS Championship – where he closed with a 66 – he had posted eight consecutive official finishes worldwide of T13 or better. He has played this event just once though, finishing solo-second to Martin Laird in 2013.
Odds: 8-1
Odds Rank: 1st
World Rank: 9th
Last Six: 33, 13, 10, 3, 12, 18
Best at the Valero: Debut
Next Five: Tony Finau, Ryan Palmer, Luke List, Gary Woodland, Jason Day
