The PGA Tour moves from one golf haven to another this week, making the trek from Pacific Palisades, California to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the 50th edition of The Honda Classic, held at the Champion Course at PGA National.
What isn’t heading to Florida this week, however, is the top of the OWGR, as none of the top-10 ranked players who were in the field for last week’s Genesis Invitational will be in attendance for The Honda.
That in no way makes this tournament a dud, though. PGA National is one of the most challenging tracks on Tour, rarely seeing scores in the double-digits under par in recent years, and while the top might not be as stellar as it was a week ago, the field is extraordinarily deep. A lot of talented players, particularly a number of regulars from the European Tour, see The Honda as a valuable experience heading into next week’s more highly-regarded Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented by Mastercard.
Among our top 15 this week includes a number of former Honda Champions, in addition to a plethora of other players who have shown the kind of grit needed to survive a championship of this difficulty:
15. Mackenzie Hughes
The 31-year-old Canadian tends to be streaky, but there is good reason to believe this could be a tremendous week for the world No. 52, who has two top-4 finishes on the current season… Armed with the Tour’s ninth-best scoring average, and ranking sixth in strokes gained: putting, Hughes has flashed in this event before, finishing second to Sungjae Im in 2020, shooting a pair of 66s on the weekend. He also opened with a 68 a year ago before three rounds of 70-72 dropped him into a tie for 36th, and opened the 2018 edition with a 67.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 52nd
Field Rank: 14th
Last Six: MC, 16, MC, 2, 29, 4
Best at The Honda: 2nd (2020)
14. Aaron Wise
The 25-year-old University of Oregon product was either phenomenal or atrocious at last year’s Honda Classic, depending on when you were watching him. Wise opened the week with a pair of 64s, which is rare on a track this difficult, to grab the 36-hole lead. He followed that up with a third-round 75 to fall three back of the lead. On Sunday, he exploded on the front nine with four birdies in a six-hole stretch to get just one back of Matt Jones at the turn. Then, his worse version re-emerged as he carded a triple-bogey on the par-4 10th. After adding a double-bogey on 16 and a bogey-6 on the par-5 18th, Wise finished a disappointing T13… Wise was playing excellent golf in his first five starts of the 2022 season, but has struggled since the calendar hit 2022, with two missed cuts and a T67 in three starts. He won’t stay down long, however, and a week where he plays a course he has played very well in the past (in spurts) is as good of a week as any to start believing in him again.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 84th
Field Rank: 28th
Last Six: 67, MC, MC, 26, 15, 5
Best at The Honda: 13th (2021)
13. Cameron Young
The Tour rookie was impressive at Riviera last week, opening 66-62, which would have been the tournament record through 36-holes had Joaquin Niemann not been several strokes better, and for most of the week, he was really the only player to put anything resembling pressure on Niemann. The 24-year-old jumped up to 53rd in the OWGR after his second runner-up finish, also his third consecutive finish inside the top 26… The two-time Korn Ferry winner a year ago ranks 2nd on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and is seventh in birdie average.
Odds: 50-1
World Rank: 53rd
Field Rank: 15th
Last Six: 2, 25, 20, 40, MC, 29
Best at The Honda: Debut
12. Matt Jones
The 41-year-old Aussie opened last year’s Honda Classic with an out-of-nowhere 9-under 61 that tied the course record. That kind of round just does not happen at PGA National anymore. Jones came back to earth afterwards, but had given himself such a cushion that really just one player in the field (Aaron Wise) put anything resembling Sunday pressure on him, and he still managed to win by a tournament-tying five strokes… Jones has been up-and-down this season, opening the 2022 calendar year with a solo-third at the Sentry Tournament of Champions (an event that he, ironically, closed with a 61), which he followed with three consecutive missed cuts… He looked good against an elite field at last week’s Genesis Invitational, however, shooting four rounds of even-par or better resulting in a T15… Way back in his rear-view mirror, Jones also contended in the 2008 edition, co-leading with Luke Donald after 54-holes before finishing T4.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 78th
Field Rank: 26th
Last Six: 15, 58, MC, MC, MC, 3
Best at The Honda: 1st (2021)
11. Mito Pereira
Could the Chileans go back-to-back on the PGA Tour? Pereira was no doubt inspired by what fellow countryman Joaquin Niemann did at The Genesis last week, and the 26-year-old is no slouch himself, posting a T15 in L.A. which put him back into the top 100 in the OWGR… Since July, he has a solo-third, a T5, and a T6 on the PGA Tour and finished T4 at The Olympics, reaching that epic seven-man playoff for the bronze medal… He was also a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, which got him the automatic graduation to the big leagues… At 14th on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green and 32nd in strokes gained: tee-to-green, he is essentially Niemann-lite. This will be his PGA National debut.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 94th
Field Rank: 30th
Last Six: 15, MC, MC, 25, 29, MC
Best at The Honda: Debut
10. Keith Mitchell
The 2019 Honda Champion by a stroke over two big names in Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler, Mitchell has quietly been playing excellent golf as of late, posting four top-12 finishes in his last five starts, including a T10 at last week’s Genesis Invitational… The 30-year-old currently ranks 15th on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and has the 19th best scoring average. His recent tear, plus the resilience he showed after blowing a large lead at October’s CJ CUP @ Summit (he finished T3), makes us willing to look past the fact that he has been awful in his other three PGA National starts (two missed cuts and a T53)… He has a lot of reason to be confident heading into the event where he scored his first (and only) Tour victory.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 80th
Field Rank: 27th
Last Six: 10, 12, MC, 7, 12, 41
Best at The Honda: 1st (2019)
9. Brooks Koepka
The biggest name in this week’s event is the local Koepka, a four-time major winner who entered this tournament alongside his lesser-regarded brother Chase. That missed cut at last week’s Genesis Invitational was discouraging, but he was T3 the week prior in Phoenix, and he has proven repeatedly that he is very tough to beat when he actually gets into contention… Ranked 15th in the world, Koepka is having a surprisingly poor ballstriking season. If he can get that back around to what we’ve come to expect from him, it would be surprising to see him not be in the mix, similar to when he finished runner-up to Keith Mitchell in the 2019 edition.
Odds: 18-1
World Rank: 15th
Field Rank: 2nd
Last Six: MC, 3, MC, 28, 9, MC
Best at The Honda: 2nd (2019)
8. Shane Lowry
Lowry has not played on the PGA Tour since missing the cut at November’s Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open, but he is on a good streak internationally, with results inside the top 24 in his last four European/Asian Tour starts… The 34-year-old now heads back across the Atlantic to play an event that he opened 67-66 a year ago, before a 74-74 weekend left him in a share of 36th… He has made the cut in all four of his Honda attempts, with a high finish of T21 in 2020… The former Open Champion Golfer of the Year currently sits at 50th in the OWGR, and shockingly to some, is no longer the highest-ranked Irish golfer, with Seamus Power’s consistently good play over the past year vaulting him into his current position of 46th. Lowry could be motivated to take that back, although we doubt he even possesses the ability to get upset about anything. He is as jovial as they come, and is likely proud of his fellow countryman. That’s not saying he would not like to be back on top though.
Odds: 22-1
World Rank: 50th
Field Rank: 12th
Last Six: 14, 24, 12, 9, MC, MC
Best at The Honda: 21st (2020)
7. C.T. Pan
Many thought it would be a career turning-point when the Chinese Taipei citizen shot a final-round 63 at The Olympics in August, and then gallantly came out victorious in a seven-man playoff for the bronze medal, one which included big names such as Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, and Paul Casey, but he has not quite taken off as expected… However, after six straight starts of 45th or worse (three missed cuts), Pan looked fantastic at last week’s Genesis Invitational, shooting four under-par rounds and finishing solo-ninth… He is a good fit at PGA National, which he showed a year ago when he finished T3 after a third-round 65… On a side note, if you get your information on these players off pgatour.com, Pan is 30, not 55 like his profile says.
Odds: 50-1
World Rank: 127th
Field Rank: 39th
Last Six: 9, MC, 78, MC, MC, 45
Best at The Honda: 3rd (2021)
6. Joaquin Niemann
The 23-year-old Chilean, who was a superstar amateur, had his “I’ve arrived” moment last week when he opened the Genesis Invitational, a brutal track against an even more difficult field, with a pair of 63s. His weekend was not quite as stellar, but he was essentially playing prevent defense, and he did more than enough, reaching 19-under for the week and becoming the tournament’s first wire-to-wire winner since 1969. It would be fair to expect a letdown coming off that high while making the cross-country trip from Los Angeles. Should we expect that though?… Now ranked 20th in the OWGR, Niemann has three top-6s in his last five starts and his ball-striking has been phenomenal… Given the big names he put away last week, we would be hesitant to not take his chances at PGA National seriously… He was T25 at last year’s Honda, his best result in three starts.
Odds: 18-1
World Rank: 20th
Field Rank: 3rd
Last Six: 1, 8, 6, MC, MC, 5
Best at The Honda: 25th (2021)
5. Matthew Wolff
Arguably the most hit-or-miss golfer on the PGA Tour, Wolff was red hot in the early part of the 2022 season (the part that happened in 2021), but then opened the 2022 calendar year with a missed cut at The American Express, followed by a 64th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, his most recent Tour start. He did finish sixth two weeks ago at the Saudi International, an event with a very good field for an Asian Tour event… The 22-year-old who posted two runner-up finishes on Tour last season has played the Honda just once, finishing 9-over in 2020, good for a T58… Wolff currently ranks second on Tour in driving distance, although it is his short game that has most flourished this season.
Odds: 40-1
World Rank: 35th
Field Rank: 8th
Last Six: 6, 64, MC, 11, 5, 2
Best at The Honda: 58th (2020)
4. Daniel Berger
A missed cut two weeks ago at the WM Phoenix Open was very surprising, but Berger had been forced to withdraw from his championship defense at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the week prior, and came into the week in good form, following a T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions with a T20 at the Farmers Insurance Open… This coming off a season where he had the aforementioned win among eight top 10s, and he missed the cut just twice in 23 starts… The world No. 21 has twice contended at PGA National, finishing second in the 2015 edition when he lost in a playoff to Padraig Harrington, and posting a T4 in 2020.
Odds: 16-1
World Rank: 21st
Field Rank: 4th
Last Six: MC, 20, 5, 7, 8, 26
Best at The Honda: 2nd (2015)
3. Louis Oosthuizen
At No. 13 in the world rankings, the South African is the highest-ranked player in this week’s field at PGA National… Coming off a season where he had no wins, but four(!) runner-ups and two third places, Oosthuizen has not posted a top-10 finish in six starts since July, but that is probably nit-picking: four of those six starts resulted in finishes in the 14th-17th range… The man who was the best putter on Tour last season has to be considered among the top threats this week, even though his best finish in this event is just a T21 in 2017… As solid as he is, he has had some uncharacteristically poor rounds here, including a 74-75 start before missing the cut in 2020, his last attempt in this event.
Odds: 20-1
World Rank: 13th
Field Rank: 1st
Last Six: 14, 38, 14, 15, 38, 17
Best at The Honda: 21st (2017)
2. Sungjae Im
The 23-year-old South Korean has made his mark at PGA National, winning the 2020 edition for his first career Tour title, and finishing T8 in his follow-up a year ago, shooting four rounds of par or better… Ranked 24th in the OWGR, Im still looks beyond his years in the current season, winning the Shriner’s Childrens Open in October, and posting four finishes of T11 or better since… He was T33 at last week’s Genesis Invitational, but played better than that result would indicate, mostly being derailed by one poor round (75 in round 3). He shot a 66 in the second round and a 67 in the fourth… He is currently seventh on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and fourth in strokes gained: total.
Odds: 14-1
World Rank: 24th
Field Rank: 6th
Last Six: 33, 6, 11, MC, 8, 19
Best at The Honda: 1st (2020)
1. Billy Horschel
The winner of two large-scale events in the past year (one on the PGA Tour and one on the European Tour), Horschel currently sits at 22nd in the OWGR, making him the fifth highest-ranked player in the Honda field… He has yet to miss a cut in the current season, and is coming in hot, going T11-T6 the past two weeks. He is also well-rested, as he was one of the very few marquee players on Tour to take off last week’s Genesis Invitational… Currently ranked second on Tour in strokes gained: putting, and 18th in greens in regulation, Horschel has finished in the top 10 at this event twice, with a high result of T4 in 2017… We see no reason why Horschel should not excel this week; heck, we’re picking him to win.
Odds: 20-1
World Rank: 22nd
Field Rank: 5th
Last Six: 6, 11, 36, 23, 32, 33
Best at The Honda: 4th (2017)
Next Five: Camilo Villegas, Rickie Fowler, Garrick Higgo, Tommy Fleetwood, Beau Hossler