With just one week to go before the PGA Championship, the second major of the 2022 PGA Tour season, an above-average field is congregating at TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas for the latest edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson, an event honoring one of the Tour’s all-time greats, dating all the way back to 1944.
It should be noted, though, that this is just the second year the event is being held at this particular venue. As has been the case the past three months, the field will be gunning for Scottie Scheffler, the red-hot world No. 1, who is making his first start in an individual event since taking The Masters just a month ago.
A University of Texas product, should Scheffler automatically be the favorite? The following is how we believe he stacks with the rest of the field:
15. Jhonattan Vegas
Recent form and course history coincide well for the three-time Tour winner from Colombia this week. Vegas has finished T4, T18, T15 in his last three starts, respectively, and he had a good showing at TPC Craig Ranch a year ago, finishing T9 after three rounds of 67 or better. Vegas currently sports the 21st best scoring average on Tour and is having one of his best statistical seasons all-around. He does have this strange recent trend though; he has shot 72 in the third round in four of his last five starts.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: T13
World Rank: 87th
Field Rank: 37th
Last Six: 15, 18, 4, 27, MC, 42
Best at the Byron Nelson: 9th (2021)
14. Tommy Fleetwood
The 31-year-old Brit just cannot seem to put together four rounds in the U.S., but he has played consistently well since March, finishing T22 or better in each of his last five starts in individual, stroke-play events. Most recently, he followed up a T14 at The Masters with a T10 at the RBC Heritage. Could TPC Craig Ranch finally provide his PGA Tour breakthrough? This will be his first attempt. It helps though, that his short game has been immaculate: he ranks fourth on Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green, eighth in strokes gained: putting, and 12th in sand save percentage.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: T13
World Rank: 43rd
Field Rank: 17th
Last Six: 10, 14, 35, 16, 22, 20
Best at the Byron Nelson: Debut
13. Matt Kuchar
It feels as though the 43-year-old has not really contended in a long time, and as a major championship fixture, not qualifying for The Masters had to be a gut punch, but Kuchar has actually been playing very well since missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. He followed up a T16 at the Valspar Championship with a pair of top-3 finishes, and then opened strongly at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship before falling victim to the Friday and Saturday conditions. A year ago, Kuchar was just three strokes off the 54-hole lead at TPC Craig Ranch before finishing T16.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: T22
World Rank: 84th
Field Rank: 35th
Last Six: 49, 3, 2, 16, MC, 67
Best at the Byron Nelson: 3rd (2016)
12. J.J. Spaun
In the most recent Tour event played in Texas, the Valero Texas Open, the 31-year-old captured his first career victory, winning by two strokes over Matt Kuchar and Matt Jones. Spaun followed up that showing with a very respectable T23 in his first ever attempt at The Masters. Despite missing the cut in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, we believe in Spaun this week at TPC Craig Ranch, where he opened the week with a 63. He faltered from there and finished just T47, but his game and confidence are at a different level going into this year’s event.
Odds: 125-1
Odds Rank: T49
World Rank: 97th
Field Rank: 42nd
Last Six: MC, 23, 1, 27, MC, 52
Best at the Byron Nelson: 3rd (2018)
11. Jason Day
Having missed three consecutive cuts in individual events coming into last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, Day’s career comeback attempt was in the midst of one of its better events, as the former world No. 1 was the 36-hole leader by three strokes. He imploded on Saturday with a 79, but a T15 was still a good finish for him, and it took some mental fortitude to plod his way through Sunday after giving the tournament away in the third round. The Aussie won this event in 2010 and finished second to Billy Horschel in 2017. Day typically plays well in Texas events.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: T22
World Rank: 119th
Field Rank: 47th
Last Six: 15, MC, MC, MC, 24, 3
Best at the Byron Nelson: 1st (2010)
10. Brooks Koepka
The four-time major champion has just one top-10 in a stroke-play event this season, finishing T3 at February’s WM Phoenix Open. In addition, he was a huge disappointment in his most recent start at The Masters (75-75 to miss the cut) and missed the cut at TPC Craig Ranch a year ago. Still, Koepka remains one of the most unpredictable players, as a lot of his best showings have come when he was thought to be down. He finished runner-up to Sergio Garcia in this event at a different course.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: T8
World Rank: 16th
Field Rank: 8th
Last Six: MC, 5, 12, MC, MC, 16
Best at the Byron Nelson: 2nd (2016)
9. Hideki Matsuyama
With two wins on the 2021 season, Matsuyama is one of eight players in the field ranked inside the top 15 of the OWGR. He should be well-rested this week, having not played since finishing T14 as the defending champion at The Masters last month. Matsuyama finished T39 at this event last year, but showed remarkable consistency, with two rounds of 68 and two rounds of 70. He currently ranks 12th on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green, greens in regulation, and birdie average, and is 13th in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
Odds: 28-1
Odds Rank: T8
World Rank: 13th
Field Rank: 7th
Last Six: 14, 20, 39, 8, 30, 1
Best at the Byron Nelson: 16th (2018)
8. Joaquin Niemann
Since winning the Genesis Invitational in February, the 23-year-old’s recent results do not jump off the page but thrust into the spotlight at The Masters last month, a product of being paired with Tiger Woods for the first two days, Niemann more than held his own and was right in the thick of contention heading into the weekend. In his most recent start, Niemann opened with a 65 at the RBC Heritage on his way to a T12 finish. Currently ranking ninth on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, Niemann’s form should keep him relevant in his first time playing this event since 2018.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: T8
World Rank: 17th
Field Rank: 8th
Last Six: 12, 35, 35, 22, MC, 1
Best at the Byron Nelson: MC (2018)
7. Xander Schauffele
This has been a pretty “meh” season by Schauffele’s lofty standards, but he finally found himself back in the winner’s circle last month, when he teamed up with Patrick Cantlay to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Granted, individual events have a much different feel, but we’re still optimistic that the victory boosted his confidence enough where we should start seeing him in contention in more events again. The recent Gold Medal winner at the Tokyo Olympics put up an uncharacteristically terrible performance at The Masters (74-77 to miss the cut), and you have to figure that he is highly motivated to get his game to a place where that will not happen again at next week’s PGA Championship. This will be his first attempt at TPC Craig Ranch.
Odds: 18-1
Odds Rank: 3rd
World Rank: 12th
Field Rank: 6th
Last Six: MC, 35, 12, MC, 13, 3
Best at the Byron Nelson: MC (2017)
6. Dustin Johnson
A fixture in the top 10 of the world rankings, DJ comes into the week ranked 11th as he attempts to end a winless streak that dates back to the November 2020 Masters, a very rare drought for the 24-time Tour winner. Johnson did miss the cut in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, but he had been trending positively with three finishes of T12 or better in his previous four starts, all three against fields MUCH stronger than what he will be facing this week. This is not an event DJ typically plays, if that even matters for someone with his experience and history of excellence.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: T4
World Rank: 11th
Field Rank: 5th
Last Six: MC, 12, 4, 39, 9, MC
Best at the Byron Nelson: 4th (2009)
5. Justin Thomas
The 14-time Tour winner has alternated top-10 finishes with finishes in the 30s over his last six starts. Most recently, he was T35 at the RBC Heritage, so if that trend continues, Thomas is looking at a good week in Dallas. Ranking second on Tour in birdie average, Thomas has consistently shown that he can go low, and TPC Craig Ranch is a course with many more birdie opportunities than a number of the courses that have been played lately. Looking for his first victory in 14 months, Thomas has played this event just once (2015), so this is a bit of a new strategy heading into next week’s major.
Odds: 12-1
Odds Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 8th
Field Rank: 2nd
Last Six: 35, 8, 3, 33, 6, 8
Best at the Byron Nelson: 55th (2015)
4. Will Zalatoris
Getting very close to a first career win that feels inevitable, Zalatoris has finished T6 or better in each of his last three starts, and regardless of what happens this week, he will be a popular pick at next week’s PGA Championship. His shotmaking has been phenomenal, ranking second on Tour in both strokes gained: approach-the-green and strokes gained: tee-to-green. He also looked comfortable at TPC Craig Ranch last year, shooting 67 in both of his weekend rounds and finishing T17. It would seem unlikely that Zalatoris disappoints this week.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: T4
World Rank: 28th
Field Rank: 10th
Last Six: 6, 5, 26, 38, 26, 2
Best at the Byron Nelson: 17th (2021)
3. Sam Burns
Coming into last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson off his first career victory, Burns nearly made it two in two starts when he held the 54-hole lead, but he was passed by K.H. Lee after a pedestrian Sunday round and had to settle for solo-second. Since then, Burns has gone on to win two more tournaments, and in the current season has six top-10s in 13 starts. Most recently, he finished runner-up teamed with Billy Horschel at last month’s Zurich Classic. Burns is currently second in the FedExCup standings and ranks well in the positive in all six strokes gained categories.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: T4
World Rank: 10th
Field Rank: 4th
Last Six: MC, 1, 26, 9, MC, MC
Best at the Byron Nelson: 2nd (2021)
2. Jordan Spieth
Just as it looked like the Dallas native was entering another extended slump, Spieth put together a great week at last month’s RBC Heritage, shooting a Sunday 66 and ousting reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. This will be his first start since recording that 13th win of his career, and given his considerable history with this event (he was just 16 when he finished T16 in 2010), it would not be anything resembling surprising if he notches win No. 14 this week. He opened last year’s event with a 63 before finishing T9.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: T4
World Rank: 9th
Field Rank: 3rd
Last Six: 1, MC, 35, 35, MC, 26
Best at the Byron Nelson: 9th (2021)
1. Scottie Scheffler
This will be the first start for the world No. 1 since he won the green jacket at The Masters last month. He did play a team event three weeks ago, finishing T18 with Ryan Palmer, but in his last six individual starts, he has FOUR(!) wins along with a T7. The University of Texas product is obliterating the Tour on the money list and the FedExCup standings and is destroying the stat sheet in his recent heater. Ranking the best player in the field No. 1 gets boring and feels almost cowardly, but really, putting anyone above him at this point would just be contrarian for contrarian’s sake.
Odds: 10-1
Odds Rank: 1st
World Rank: 1st
Field Rank: 1st
Last Six: 1, 1, 55, 1, 7, 1
Best at the Byron Nelson: 22nd (2014)
Next Five: Kurt Kitayama, Adam Scott, Davis Riley, Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin
