The best of Florida was most definitely not on display last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, as the PGA Tour’s flagship event was subjected to heavy rain and devastating winds; which made it fun to watch, but difficult to play. The poor weather forced a Monday finish, but a thrilling final round, highlighted by immaculate iron play and putting from champion Cameron Smith, who left TPC Sawgrass with a record $3.6 million.
This week’s Valspar Championship, taking place just north of Tampa, may not have a $20 million purse, but it does have ten players ranked inside the top 20 in the world rankings, and an exciting history, with six of the last seven champions claiming victory by one stroke or in a playoff.
Will exhaustion from a draining long weekend mean surprisingly poor results from the world’s best?
15. Tommy Fleetwood
It felt like Fleetwood was leading THE PLAYERS Championship for six days, as he jumped out to the 18-hole lead, with the second-round not beginning until decently into Saturday. The 31-year-old Brit stagnated from there, shooting 73, 72, 72 to finish T22. As disappointing as his inability to finish in the U.S. has to have been for him, Fleetwood should be encouraged by the fact that he has posted top-25s in three of his last four Tour starts, and is playing well enough to finish surprisingly well at the Copperhead Course in his event debut.
Odds: 40-1
Odds Rank: 15th
World Rank: 47th
Field Rank: 20th
Last Six: 22, 20, MC, 8, 12, 48
Best at the Valspar: Debut
14. Keegan Bradley
Last year’s runner-up to Sam Burns, the former major champion contended until late on Monday at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, vaulting into the Sunday lead before collapsing with a bogey, double-bogey finish. Still, a 68-68 weekend including a shocking 15 birdies, and catalyzed a solo-fifth; still a phenomenal accomplishment. The 35-year-old should be feeling good about his game, having also posted a T11 the week prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bradley was second in the PLAYERS field in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ranks 11th in that statistic for the year.
Odds: 50-1
Odds Rank: 17th
World Rank: 66th
Field Rank: 28th
Last Six: 5, 11, 48, 26, 65, 12
Best at the Valspar: 2nd (2021)
13. Adam Hadwin
The 2017 Valspar champion by a stroke over Patrick Cantlay arrives at Innisbrook is in some of his best form in years. The 34-year-old Canadian doesn’t knock the cover off the ball, but has flashed a great all-around game, currently ranking inside the top 50 in five of the six strokes gained: categories. Hadwin has finished inside the top 26 in three of his past four starts, including a T9 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship where he birdied eight holes on Monday, closing with a 5-under 67 that was bettered by only four players.
Odds: 60-1
Odds Rank: 24th
World Rank: 132nd
Field Rank: 48th
Last Six: 9, MC, 26, 16, MC, 25
Best at the Valspar: Win (2017)
12. Shane Lowry
The former Open Championship Golfer of the Year got to live every golfer’s fantasy last weekend at THE PLAYERS when he aced the iconic 17th hole Island Green in his third round. Lowry seemed to lose gas on Monday, but a T13 was his second consecutive top 15, having finished solo runner-up two weeks prior at The Honda Classic. The Irishman currently has the Tour’s 15th best scoring average and has been putting much better than his reputation. He has played the Valspar just once, posting a T49 in 2018.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 36th
Field Rank: 17th
Last Six: 13, 2, 14, 24, 12, 9
Best at the Valspar: 49th (2018)
11. Matt Fitzpatrick
The talented Englishman has appeared on the verge of his first career Tour victory for a while now. He arrived at TPC Sawgrass last week off three consecutive top-10 finishes, but fell into the bad weather wave, and missed the cut by two strokes after shooting a pair of 2-over 74s. That disappointment can be thrown out, as Fitzpatrick currently ranks inside the top 30 in all six strokes gained: categories, including a ranking of fourth in strokes gained: total. He has played Innisbrook just once, missing the cut four years ago. He’s a better golfer now.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 26th
Field Rank: 13th
Last Six: MC, 9, 10, 6, 12, 2
Best at the Valspar: MC (2018)
10. Tyrrell Hatton
The 30-year-old Englishman seems to be rounding back into his better form, chasing a T2 two weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (despite a third-round 78) with a T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, which was nearly well inside the top 10 before a double-bogey, bogey finish on a Monday 2-under 70. Hatton leads the Tour in strokes gained: putting, which is always an ultimate equalizer. He has played this event just once, missing the cut in 2018 after going 69-81. He is hoping for more consistency this time.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 15th
Field Rank: 7th
Last Six: 13, 2, 28, 4, 6, 9
Best at the Valspar: MC (2018)
9. Xander Schauffele
The most recent gold medal winner was one of the player’s whose PLAYERS result can pretty much just be thrown out. As the four-time winner shot 73-78 in nightmare conditions to miss the cut by five strokes. It was just his fourth missed cut in his last three seasons combined. Schauffele continues to be above average in every facet of his game, and should be confident this week despite the poor showing at TPC Sawgrass and the fact that this is his Valspar debut.
Odds: 18-1
Odds Rank: 5th
World Rank: 9th
Field Rank: 4th
Last Six: MC, 13, 3, 18, 34, 12
Best at the Valspar: Debut
8. Louis Oosthuizen
At one point last season, Oosthuizen had posted six top-10s in a span of seven starts, which makes it very surprising that he has failed to record a single one in six starts this season. It appeared he might snap that streak when he was at 6-under and in a tie for eighth after 54 holes at THE PLAYERS last week, but he got off to a disaster start on his Monday, playing his first four holes in 4-over and shooting a 76 that dropped him into a share of 42nd. Still, he is one of the highest-ranked players in the field, and has the kind of all-around game that makes him impossible to count out any week, at least in regards to contention. He is still searching for his first Tour win in more than a decade. Fortunately for the South African, this has been a fantastic event for him: he has four consecutive finishes of 16th or better including three top-10s and a runner-up finish to Paul Casey in 2019.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: 6th
World Rank: 13th
Field Rank: 6th
Last Six: 42, 30, 14, 38, 14, 15
Best at the Valspar: 2nd (2019)
7. Joaquin Niemann
A dominant victory at last month’s Genesis Invitational showed a flash of what the 23-year-old Chilean is capable of. He surprisingly missed the cut in his next start at the Honda Classic, but got into the early mix last week’s at THE PLAYERS after opening the week with a 5-under 67, eventually finishing T22 for the week. Ranked 18th in the world rankings, Niemann ranks sixth on Tour in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: around-the-green, which correlate well at the Copperhead Course. He finished T8 at last year’s Valspar, in just his second attempt.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 18th
Field Rank: 9th
Last Six: 22, MC, 1, 8, 6, MC
Best at the Valspar: 8th (2021)
6. Sam Burns
The defending champion by three strokes over Keegan Bradley a year ago, Burns has emerged from a slump of three missed cuts to place T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago, which he followed up by nabbing the 36-hole lead at THE PLAYERS before collapsing in Monday’s final round to finish T26. He has been a little hit-or-miss, but as we saw over the second half of 2021, the LSU product is consistently strong and can string together great results. Burns ranks 14th on Tour in greens in regulation and is 22nd in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
Odds: 25-1
Odds Rank: 8th
World Rank: 17th
Field Rank: 8th
Last Six: 26, 9, MC, MC, MC, 19
Best at the Valspar: Win (2021)
5. Paul Casey
The 44-year-old has notched three victories on the PGA Tour, and two of them were in this event. Casey won the 2018 title by a stroke over Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed, and successfully defended that title the next year when he won by a stroke over Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen. Casey’s solo-third at last week’s PLAYERS Championship could have him feeling like he can make it 3 of the last 4 at Copperhead, but at the same time, contending so late at TPC Sawgrass had to take a toll on him physically. He was in the Sunday lead at one point and still very much a part of the mix when he got the bad break of bad breaks, having an otherwise immaculate tee shot on the par-5 16th land in a small divot from another’s player’s pitch shot. Casey ranks fourth on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green.
Odds: 20-1
Odds Rank: 6th
World Rank: 24th
Field Rank: 12th
Last Six: 3, 72, 15, 24, 12, 16
Best at the Valspar: Win (2019, 2018)
4. Dustin Johnson
Season break-out alert? DJ had been underwhelming in 2022 so far, but something seemed to click with him in the final round at THE PLAYERS where he jumped 50 spots up the final leaderboard with a 9-under 63 that was the best round in the Sunday field by three strokes. No. 10 in the OWGR feels way too low for the caliber of player the 24-time Tour champion is. Johnson has played Innisbrook four times, with three poor results, but placed T6 in 2019, and was just one stroke off the 54-hole lead.
Odds: 14-1
Odds Rank: 4th
World Rank: 10th
Field Rank: 5th
Last Six: 9, MC, 8, 25, 45, 8
Best at the Valspar: 6th (2019)
3. Justin Thomas
The world No. 8 arrived at THE PLAYERS last week off seven consecutive top-20 finishes, so a T33 ended up being more than a disappointment, although he was in the “bad weather” wave, and somehow was able to play his second-round, in awful conditions, bogey free. Looking for his first victory in more than a year now, Thomas ranks fourth on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and greens in regulation, giving hope that he could close the deal for the 15th time in his career any time soon. He finished T13 in this event last year, one of three finishes of T18 or better in four Valspar attempts.
Odds: 10-1
Odds Rank: 1st
World Rank: 8th
Field Rank: 3rd
Last Six: 33, 6, 8, 20, 5, 5
Best at the Valspar: 10th (2015)
2. Collin Morikawa
The World No. 2 arrived at THE PLAYERS having finished seventh or better in all five of his 2022 starts, coming off a two-win 2021. A fantastic fit for TPC Sawgrass, Morikawa was unfortunate to be a part of the bad wave for the first two rounds, and he shot 73-75 and missed the cut by two strokes. We are more than willing to forget that performance, and believe it will be an enormous outlier in his season. He has the Tour’s second-best scoring average and ranks 15th or better in five of the six strokes gained: categories, most notably ranking eighth in strokes gained: putting, which was thought to be his only weakness. He has not played the Copperhead Course before, but this is the same guy who has won two majors where he was making his tournament debut.
Odds: 12-1
Odds Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 2nd
Field Rank: 1st
Last Six: MC, 2, 18, 62, 5, 5
Best at the Valspar: Debut
1. Viktor Hovland
The world No. 3 had some dicey moments at THE PLAYERS, but in the end, a T9 was his third consecutive top-10 on Tour. For the season, he has a win and a runner-up among four top-10s in just eight starts. Hovland’s shot-making has been top-notch as he ranks sixth on Tour in greens in regulation and seventh in strokes gained: approach-the-green. He continues to be a nightmare around the greens, however, a final-round 65 at Copperhead a year ago meant a T3 in his Valspar debut.
Odds: 12-1
Odds Rank: 2nd
World Rank: 3rd
Field Rank: 2nd
Last Six: 9, 2, 4, MC, 1, 4
Best at the Valspar: 3rd (2021)
Next Five: Harold Varner III, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson, Jason Kokrak, Cameron Tringale
