PGA Tour or LIV Tour? This week, it does not matter, as all of the best golfers are shipping up to Boston for the U.S. Open, the third major of the 2022 golf season.
The aptly named “The Country Club” at Brookline is the host venue in what promises to be a thrilling week, particularly with the recent schism in the golf universe. The Masters saw a newly-dominant Scottie Scheffler keep the heater of all heaters going for his fourth Tour win of the season and first major championship victory. The PGA Championship saw one of the biggest comebacks of all time, with Justin Thomas winning in a playoff after beginning the final round seven strokes off the pace.
There’s a lot of contentious debate going on right now about the future of golf but one thing everyone can agree on: this week will be brutal – something the diabolical USGA takes pride in.
Who do we see coming out on top in golf’s toughest test? Our top 30 is below:
20. Mito Pereira
For those unfamiliar with the world’s second-highest ranked Chilean before May, that changed at last month’s PGA Championship, where the former Korn Ferry Tour star held the lead after 71 holes before finishing T3. Yes, it was heartbreaking to watch Pereira butcher the final hole in just his second career major start, after looking unflappable all week, but he stayed positive and seems determined to not let it derail him, as evidenced by his finishes of T7 and T13 in two starts since. The 27-year-old’s putting has been hit-or-miss for much of the season, but he has remained strong tee to green, and currently ranks 7th on Tour in greens in regulation.
Odds: 66-1
Odds Rank: 27th
OWGR Rank: 45th
PGWW Rank: 31st
Best U.S. Open: MC (2019)
Last Six: 13, 7, 3, 17, 26, 13
19. Cameron Young
Young claims to be a rookie, but he sure appears to be hustling the Tour. While he has yet to finish first, he has five top-3 finishes in just 18 starts and contended until the end at the PGA Championship last month, finishing T3. He ranks 10th on Tour in both birdie average and scoring average and ranks seventh in driving distance. There could be a little scar tissue from how brutally he ended at The Memorial two weeks ago, but we find it more likely that he continues to sizzle.
Odds: 40-1
Odds Rank: 27th
OWGR Rank: 45th
PGWW Rank: 31st
Best U.S. Open: MC (2021)
Last Six: 60, 3, 2, 3, MC, 35
18. Viktor Hovland
The 24-year-old from Norway is not in his best form, but even without a top 20 in more than three months, he still stands 17th in points on the Tour. To say he feels comfortable playing the U.S. Open is an understatement: in 2019 he finished T12 as an amateur, breaking one of Jack Nicklaus’ records in the process, and following that up with a T13 the following year as a rookie pro. We figure he is really itching to get back out and give it a try, as he was forced to withdraw from last year’s edition after a freak sand incident led to an eye problem that he is long recovered from. He will emerge from his slump, it’s just a matter of when.
Odds: 28-1
OWGR Rank: 8th
PGWW Rank: 15th
Best U.S. Open: 12th (2019)
Last Six: 51, 21, 41, 27, 18, 33
17. Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama is such a solid tee-to-green player that many would be shocked to realize that since 2017, he has just one top-10 in major championships. However, that one top-10 was a Masters triumph, and while he has really only seriously contended at the U.S. Open just once (T2 in 2016), he has not been bad either, with seven finishes of T26 or better in nine attempts. The 30-year-old star from Japan is among a small handful of players on Tour with multiple wins on the season, taking the ZOZO Championship in October and the Sony Open in Hawaii in January. More recently he was T3 at last month’s AT&T Byron Nelson where he closed with a 62.
Odds: 40-1
OWGR Rank: 13th
PGWW Rank: 11th
Best U.S. Open: 2nd (2017)
Last Six: 60, 3, 14, 20, 38, 8
16. Cameron Smith
Nobody on Tour can suddenly explode into contention out of nowhere than the Aussie, who leads the Tour in birdie average and finished a record 34-under-par in his January victory at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. While he has yet to break through in a major, he won March’s THE PLAYERS Championship, which is the next best thing. Unfortunately, there are also few golfers who can play their way out of a tournament than Smith, and that 76 or 77 round always seems to be looming with him. He was T4 in his 2015 U.S. Open debut, although that is looking like an outlier with his last five starts in the event all being poor. It helps that he boasts one of the world’s best short games, which is always a great help on a difficult track.
Odds: 16-1
OWGR Rank: 6th
PGWW Rank: 4th
Best U.S. Open: 4th (2015)
Last Six: 48, 13, 13, MC, 3, 1
15. Collin Morikawa
A year ago at Torrey Pines, Morikawa opened with a 75, but was the low scorer over the last three days, going 67-70-70 to finish T4. It was the third-best major result in just ten career starts for the five-time Tour winner, with the better two being a tie between his PGA Championship victory and his Open Championship victory. Most of his game looks like it was built for the U.S. Open, and clearly he can handle inexperience and intense pressure, but there are concerns about him coming into the week. Since his fifth-place finish at The Masters, the world No. 7 has been slumping hard, with results of T55, T40, CUT in his last three Tour starts respectively.
Odds: 25-1
OWGR Rank: 7th
PGWW Rank: 9th
Best U.S. Open: 4th (2021)
Last Six: MC, 40, 55, 26, 5, 9
14. Brooks Koepka
Brookline, Brooks-line, anything there fate-wise? That might be a stretch, but what we do know is this has been his event. Koepka followed up a win in 2017 at Erin Hills with a win in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills. In two U.S. Open starts since, he has a solo runner-up and a T4, and he was also T4 in 2014. We have to ask, though, will we be getting THAT Brooks Koepka this week? He has battled with injury and consistency in 2022, with a missed cut at The Masters and a T55 at the PGA Championship being very uncharacteristic. We have little doubt his confidence will be there this week, though, as he remains his generation’s preeminent big-game player.
Odds: 40-1
OWGR Rank: 19th
PGWW Rank: 24th
Best U.S. Open: 1st (2018, 2017)
Last Six: 55, MC, 5, 12, MC, 16
13. Sungjae Im
The young Korean had to sit the PGA Championship after testing positive for COVID, which was really a shame because Im has been making his mark in the majors early in his career, and finished T8 at The Masters in April. He arrives at Brookline in excellent form, notching five straight finishes of T21 or better, including a T10 at The Memorial. His tee-to-green game has been excellent in his fourth Tour season, which is well illustrated by the fact that he has missed the cut in just two of 18 starts.
Odds: 40-1
OWGR Rank: 21st
PGWW Rank: 25th
Best U.S. Open: 35th (2021)
Last Six: 10, 15, 21, 8, 35, 55
12. Patrick Cantlay
Sitting fourth in the OWGR, Cantlay is the highest-ranked golfer in the world without a major victory. The reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year arrives at Brookline determined and in excellent form with a win while teamed up with Xander Schauffele at the Zurich Classic among three top-3 finishes in his last four starts. Cantlay was T15 a year ago at Torrey Pines, and there is no obvious reason why he has not been more successful in the majors. There is a reason they call him Patty Ice: no moment appears to be too big for him.
Odds: 25-1
OWGR Rank: 4th
PGWW Rank: 6th
Best U.S. Open: 15th (2021)
Last Six: 3, MC, 2, 39, 26, MC
11. Tony Finau
When Finau won THE NORTHERN TRUST, the first leg of the FedExCup playoffs in August, which broke an absurdly long streak of top-10s without a victory, fans wondered if the flood gates would open and the 32-year-old would find himself in the winner’s circle much more often. That has not been in the case in the 2022 season, who not only has not won again, but suffered through an awful slump from October through April. Fortunately, things are now suddenly trending back in a positive direction for Finau. After a T2 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the beginning of May, he had two so-so finishes before a T4-2 streak in his last two starts, the latter coming after a 62-64 weekend in Canada. That should give him considerable momentum heading into the U.S. Open where he has a mixed bag, with three missed cuts and three top-15s in six tries.
Odds: 33-1
OWGR Rank: 15th
PGWW Rank: 14th
Best U.S. Open: 5th (2018)
Last Six: 2, 4, 30, 41, 2, 35
10. Shane Lowry
Considered one of the most likable players on Tour, the jovial Irishman has been consistently excellent over the last two seasons, with a T3 and a T4 among five top-25s in his last five major starts. Lowry has not missed a cut since November and has three top 10s in his last six starts, including at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. The 35-year-old boasts the Tour’s fifth-best scoring average, and while his U.S. Open results haven’t been great as a whole, he has had success in this major before, holding a considerable 54-hole advantage at the 2016 edition before finishing T9. He seemed to internalize the lessons from that experience, particularly when he won the 2019 Open Championship by six strokes.
Odds: 28-1
OWGR Rank: 24th
PGWW Rank: 16th
Best U.S. Open: 9th (2016)
Last Six: 10, 32, 23, 3, 3, 35
9. Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: 25-1
OWGR Rank: 18th
PGWW Rank: 13th
Best U.S. Open: 9th (2016)
Last Six: 10, MC, 5, 2, MC, 14
8. Sam Burns
Burns’ fourth full-time season on Tour has been a resounding success. He opened with a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship, he won the Valspar Championship, and just a few weeks ago, he outdueled world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to take the Charles Schwab Challenge. In all, it is eight top-10s in 2022 for the man currently sitting second on Tour in points. Now, the 25-year-old just needs to prove himself in the majors. He has not been terribly relevant in any of his eight major starts so far, but a T20 at the PGA Championship was encouraging and shows that he is trending in the right direction. He currently ranks fourth on Tour in strokes gained: total.
Odds: 22-1
OWGR Rank: 9th
PGWW Rank: 8th
Best U.S. Open: 41st (2018)
Last Six: 4, 1, 20, MC, MC, 1
7. Justin Thomas
It is difficult to know exactly what to make of Thomas going into this week. His seven-stroke comeback victory to take last month’s PGA Championship, the second major win of his career, was extremely impressive and had to fill him with a great deal of confidence. However, he has struggled when in contention at other majors in recent years, and if not for one bad swing from Mito Pereira, JT would be the subject to lots of questions about how he only has one major championship to go with his 14 career PGA Tour wins. It was a little unsettling that he bogeyed the final two holes at last week’s RBC Canadian Open after six straight birdies allowed him to catch eventual winner Rory McIlroy. His best is amazing right now, but is this the kind of major he is built to win? He typically fares better in shoot outs than having to grind for 72 holes.
Odds: 10-1
OWGR Rank: 5th
PGWW Rank: 3rd
Best U.S. Open: 8th (2020)
Last Six: 3, MC, 1, 5, 35, 8
6. Jordan Spieth
The 2015 U.S. Open winner was slumping a bit in February through the first half of April, but appears to be in world-class form again, with a victory, a runner-up, and a T7 among his last five results. He also did well in grinding out a T18 at The Memorial after falling apart early on Sunday. It is also encouraging that he finished sixth in Muirfield Village in strokes gained: putting, which seems to be a kind of a hit-or-miss thing with him; it was very much a miss at the PGA Championship last month. Since that 2015 victory at Chambers Bay, Spieth has not been a factor in the U.S. Open, with a T19 a year ago his only top 35 in the five editions since. If his putting this week is closer to what he did at Muirfield Village than what he did at Southern Hills, he stands a great chance of contending for his fourth career major win.
Odds: 25-1
OWGR Rank: 10th
PGWW Rank: 10th
Best U.S. Open: 1st (2015)
Last Six: 18, 7, 34, 2, 1, MC
5. Jon Rahm
Last year’s U.S. Open at Torrey Pines was the breakthrough major victory for the world No. 2, who came back from three strokes down to take the lead on the 17th hole and win by a stroke over perennial bridesmaid Louis Oosthuizen. Rahm has been surprisingly inconsistent in the 2022 season but should be considered a top threat to win a second U.S. Open in a row, after winning the Mexico Open at Vidanta in May and finishing tenth two weeks ago at The Memorial Tournament. The Spaniard currently leads the Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and greens in regulation and has always been among the best at finding birdie holes where others can’t.
Odds: 16-1
OWGR Rank: 2nd
PGWW Rank: 4th
Best U.S. Open: 1st (2021)
Last Six: 10, 48, 1, 27, 9, 55
4. Scottie Scheffler
The world No. 1 and current FedExCup leader by a wide margin has really made his mark on the 2022 season. His victory at The Masters in April was one of four wins on the season, he also has two runner-ups, including two starts ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he reached a playoff. Scheffler currently ranks second on Tour in greens in regulation and is really not struggling in ANY part of his game. He has been so good that not having a win in his last five starts almost makes us wonder if something is wrong with him. There is little reason to doubt him this week in Brookline.
Odds: 14-1
OWGR Rank: 1st
PGWW Rank: 1st
Best U.S. Open: 7th (2021)
Last Six: 18, 2, MC, 15, 1, 1
3. Xander Schauffele
Way overdue for his first major championship win, it would make perfect sense to predict it happening this week. In five U.S. Open starts, Schauffele has five finishes of T7 or better. The four-time Tour winner has underwhelmed a bit this season, which was very much not expected after winning a gold medal at The Olympics in Tokyo last summer, but now he comes into the season’s third major off a string of four consecutive top-20s, possibly catalyzed by his win while paired with Patrick Cantlay at the Zurich Classic in late April. The world No. 12 currently ranks seventh on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and boasts a top-3 scoring average in both the third and fourth rounds.
Odds: 22-1
OWGR Rank: 12th
PGWW Rank: 12th
Best U.S. Open: 3rd (2019)
Last Six: 18, 13, 5, MC, 35, 12
2. Rory McIlroy
The 2011 U.S. Open winner by a ridiculous eight strokes could not have impressed more last week, shooting a final-round 62 in Ontario to successfully defend his 2019 title in the RBC Canadian Open. He put on a shotmaking clinic for a lot of the week and showed something important when he didn’t wilt after getting caught by Justin Thomas late. The world No. 3 has finished in the top 10 of the last three U.S. Opens, and while it is rare for someone to win a major the week after winning another Tour event, the last person to do it was Rory himself in 2014. He is now at 21 career Tour victories, one better than Greg Norman. You would think he would take great pleasure in being two out front.
Odds: 10-1
OWGR Rank: 3rd
PGWW Rank: 2nd
Best U.S. Open: 1st (2011)
Last Six: 1, 18, 8, 5, 2, MC
1. Will Zalatoris
Could this guy get any closer to his first win? He was runner-up to Justin Thomas last month at the PGA Championship, the second time this season he has lost in a playoff. That performance at Southern Hills was just his sixth major start as a professional, but already his fifth top-10 in a major. We said it repeatedly with Scottie Scheffler, and we’re saying it now with Will the Thrill: it’s happening soon. The 25-year-old possesses the kind of elite precision needed for a U.S. Open currently ranking first on Tour in strokes gained: approach-the-green, second in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and sixth in greens in regulation.
Odds: 22-1
OWGR Rank: 14th
PGWW Rank: 2nd
Best U.S. Open: 1st (2011)
Last Six: 1, 18, 8, 5, 2, MC
Next Five: 21-25
21. Dustin Johnson: The best player to defect for the LIV Tour, DJ finished a solid 8th in London, but has not played well on the Tour since a T12 at The Masters. He won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016 and has five other top-10s. These majors are a rare chance for him to add to his legacy.
22. Joaquin Niemann: A T3 at The Memorial gives hope that the U.S. Open could be when the 23-year-old Chilean will finally contend at a major.
23. Phil Mickelson: Is finished laying low, missing the first two majors of the year due to controversial comments he made about the Tour. Could easily be distracted, but if he wins, he would be the sixth ever to complete the career grand slam and break his own record for oldest major winner. Has finished runner-up at the U.S. Open seven(!) times.
24. Tommy Fleetwood: Has two top-four finishes at the U.S. Open and is rounding back into form after a T5 at the PGA Championship last month. Has six top-10s in the U.S. since March. He has the game to win, but is he capable of putting four rounds together?
25. Corey Conners: A final round 62 at the Canadian Open last week could give him the confidence to contend at yet another major, something he has made a habit of the past two seasons. He was T6 at The Masters in April.
Next Next Five: 26-30
26. Max Homa: Two of his four Tour victories have come this season and has been consistently excellent all season. Had been irrelevant in the majors in his career, but trending very positively after a T13 at the PGA Championship. Currently eighth in the U.s. tour’s points standings.
27. Louis Oosthuizen: Sputtering in 2022, but can never be counted out at a major, especially at the U.S. Open, where he has gone T7, 3, 2 in his last three attempts and has finished T23 or better seven straight times. Was runner-up to Jon Rahm last year.
28. Justin Rose: 2013 U.S. Open champion at Merion closed with an 11-under 60 at last week’s RBC Canadian Open despite three bogeys. Was T13 at the PGA Championship last month.
29. Daniel Berger: Arrives at the U.S. Open, a major where he has notched two top-10s, off a T5 at The Memorial. Was T7 a year ago at Torrey Pines after closing with a 68.
30. Davis Riley: Has top-15 finishes in each of his last six Tour starts, including a T13 at the PGA Championship.
Five More: 31-35
31. Billy Horschel: The recent winner of the Memorial, and world No.11, seems to be flying way under the radar. Horschel’s favorite professional sports teams are the New England Patriots and Boston Red Sox.
32. Abraham Ancer: The Mexican has struggled as of late, but in two of the bigger events of the spring Ancer finished T9 at the PGA and T5 at the WGC-Match Play.
33. Bryson Dechambeau: The 2020 U.S. Open champion has battled injury for the past year but is said to be close. When healthy DeChambeau is one of the world’s top-5 players.
34. Patrick Reed: The 2018 Masters has struggled with his game since coming down with COVID pneumonia last year. Now ranked No.38 – his lowest position since his rookie year, Reed seems due for a top finish.
35. Adam Scott: The Aussie is not quite in top form, but regularly sizzles on the major stage.
